Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 132000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
200 PM MDT Tue Mar 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Upper ridge axis will migrate from the Rockies today to the
central Plains on Wednesday. As a result, warm and dry conditions
are expected. Temperatures on Wednesday will reach at least the
lower 70s. May see some elevated fire weather conditions in
southern areas, but humidity and wind speeds are forecast to
remain below critical criteria.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Ridge weakens and is shunted east on Thursday as the next system
enters the Great Basin. As low pressure deepens in northeast
Colorado in response to that system, a cold front will drop out of
Nebraska and settle across northwest Kansas by the afternoon.
Temperatures north of the front will be in the upper 60s to lower
70s, while south of the front expect upper 70s to lower 80s. Once
again will see elevated fire weather conditions south of the
front, cannot rule out some areas of critical as well.

Models now agree that first piece of energy ejecting across the
Rockies Thursday night and Friday will close off and have a
slight negative tilt. Precipitation chances/amounts have increased
as a result, particularly north of the Interstate and in
southwest Nebraska. Precipitation will be mainly in the form of
rain, but might see a brief mix or changeover to snow, but no
accumulation is expected. The other concern will be strong winds
on the backside from very late Thursday night/early Friday morning
through Friday afternoon. Models show a 50-60kt wind max at 700mb
developing in the southwest quadrant of the closed low. This
would potentially impact the western half of the area with strong
and gusty northwest winds. Precipitation may limit the potential
for blowing dust. It is still several days out but will need to
keep monitoring.

Upper low will lift out Friday night with dry conditions through
Saturday under southwest flow aloft. Temperatures on Saturday will
be near to slightly above normal.

Main upper low will then eject across the Rockies and into the
central and northern plains on Sunday night/Monday. Track is a
little further north and area may be get dry slotted. Nonetheless,
will have a chance of rain or rain/snow during that time with best
chances across western and northern areas. Accumulating snow
amounts currently appear less than an inch. May see some breezy
northwest winds on Monday on the backside, but with the system
further north should escape stronger winds. Expect for
precipitation to be ending by Monday night. Temperatures will be
near normal for Monday and Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1109 AM MDT Tue Mar 13 2018

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Skies
will be mostly clear and surface winds light, generally out of
the southeast, around surface high pressure centered in the
northern plains.




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