Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 142335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
535 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Issued at 535 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Based on current conditions across the CWA...have decided to
cancel the High Wind Warning. Will be issuing a Special Weather
Statement for the next couple hours to cover current winds around
35 to 50 mph from Highway 27 east towards the Hill City area.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Tonight-Sunday night...winds will quickly decrease this evening as
the storm system that brought snow and blizzard conditions to the
area continues to slowly move away. Low temperatures should range
from the mid teens north to around 20 far south and west. Record low
temperatures are expected at many locations...see climate section
below. On Sunday northwest winds in the 15 to 20 mph range expected
with some mid and/or high clouds across the west. Snow cover
generally along and north of the interstate will make for a
challenging high temperature forecast. Bias corrected grids seem to
have some handle on this and blending the better performing models
suggests highs ranging from the low to mid 40s along the KS/NE
border to around 60/low 60s across the far southwest and south. For
Sunday night expect lows ranging from the upper teens east to the
mid/upper 20s west. Record lows are possible for McCook and Hill
City...see climate section below.

Monday...southeast winds slowly increase into the 15 to 20 mph range
with some higher gusts underneath an upper ridge axis separating
low pressure systems centered over the Great Lakes and northwest
United States. 850mb temperatures warm about 15F to 19F across the
area supporting highs ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s
east/northeast to the low and mid 70s across the west and
southwest parts of the forecast area. Low temperatures in the mid
30s to around 40.

Tuesday...focus shifts to west coast trough which is currently
forecast during the afternoon. Ahead of it will be increasing west
and southwest winds through mid afternoon before shifting to the
northwest as the troughs associated cold front moves in shifting
winds abruptly to the northwest. Lots can change between now and
Tuesday so am hesitant to make many changes. Should see highs
ranging from the mid 60s to around 70 in the west to the mid/upper
70s across the east and south. Critical fire weather conditions are
possible, see Fire Weather section below.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Wednesday, a cold front pushes over the Tri-State area. Expecting
cooler temperatures and stronger winds along with this front.
Highs will reach the low to mid 60s, and winds will range in the
25-35 mph range with higher gusts. Lows will sit in the upper
20s. There is potential for fire weather criteria being met on
Wednesday, it just depends on how much we dry out before then.

Thursday we bounce back up briefly in the mid to upper 60s ahead
of another system moving in on Friday. At this time, models are
in agreement of something impacting the Tri-State area, and all
three are weighing pops pretty high for a day 7 event. Confident
that we will experience some sort of precipitation. More than
likely, we will see a wintry mix, but at this time, the impacts,
timing, and severity are still a little far out in the extended
for concern.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 459 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

For KGLD...VFR conditions thru the forecast period. Winds N
25-35kts thru 03z Sunday...then N around 10kts.

For KMCK...looking for mainly VFR conditions w/ 00z-01z MVFR as
some remaining BKN030 clearing the area...and 09z-13z Sunday
BKN015 as low clouds develop. Winds N 25-50kts thru 01z
Sunday...then NNW around 10-15kts.


Issued at 310 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Critical fire weather conditions are likely Tuesday generally
along and west of a line from near Yuma Colorado to Colby and Gove

Critical fire weather conditions are possible Wednesday generally
along and west of a line from Flagler Colorado to Leoti Kansas.


Issued at 310 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Record low temperatures are possible at the following locations
Sunday morning April 15:

Goodland..........20 degrees set in 1951
Hill City.........19 degrees set in 2014
McCook............19 degrees set in 1983
Burlington........19 degrees set in 1905
Tribune...........18 degrees set in 1983
Yuma..............19 degrees set in 1961

Record low temperatures are possible at the following locations
Monday morning April 16:

Hill City.........19 degrees set in 1951
McCook............18 degrees set in 1951




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