Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 242057

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
257 PM MDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Tue Apr 24 2018

In advance of current system moving slowly into Nebraska, widespread
rain and even some light snow occurred over the area through the day.
Another system will be moving in from the west tonight. Question
will be where the chance of precipitation will be and where if any
fog will develop.

Intense precipitation rates/latent heat release kept temperatures
much cooler today. The models are not taking that into account so
will be starting out cooler. First round of precipitation is
decreasing slowly from west to east. However, another round of
precipitation was already developing to our west and will continue
to move/develop across portions of the area. It will mainly be
confined to the southern and eastern portions of the area.
Temperatures will get cold enough that a mixture of rain and snow
will be possible in some locations.

Was initially concerned about fog developing. But the clouds hanging
around a while plus the winds staying up should keep this from
happening. Evening shift will have watch this.

Upper system will continue to move away from the area. Another
shortwave coming around the west side could bring some light
precipitation to the far eastern portion in the morning but do not
expect a lot. North winds will pick up and should be close to
breezy. Temperatures will be warmer with more sun. For now went with
the forecast blend.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 202 PM MDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Main concern for the Thursday-Friday time period will be how
strong winds will be behind cold frontal passage. Fairly good
agreement with respect to frontal passage timing in the 12-18z
time period. While soundings indicate fairly intense winds aloft,
50+kt area of winds remains above the inversion level and likely
will not be in play when front hits. That being said, still looks
quite windy with a decent chance of seeing a 45 mph gust or two in
the late morning hours. Soundings indicate some weak potential
instability in area of strong CAA Thursday afternoon. Whatever
potential is strongly capped by subsidence inversion and would
make any precip processes very shallow leaving me to think
sprinkles at best as a response. Otherwise, looks like a rather
chilly night overnight Thursday and will likely see a few areas
fall into the upper 20s.

In the Extended Periods(Friday Night-Tuesday)...Ensembles and
deterministic models continue to show a large amount of variance
in the particulars of the upcoming pattern, but generally agree on
the overall pattern of troughing increasing across the southwest
and development of a strong lee trough across area. Overall
pattern looks favorable to allow decent amount of moisture return
into the area with a fairly strong GEFS signal indicating
potential for 1000-2000 j/kg instability moving up into the area.
Although precip chances are fairly low, do think it is worth
mentioning thunderstorms as primary weather type should precip
occur. Other, much more conditional threat, will be potential for
another round of critical fire weather conditions on Monday and
Tuesday. This will greatly depend on the position of expected
dryline. If dryline sets up to our east, large portion of area
will see a day or two of critical fire weather conditions.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Precipitation beginning to decrease and end near Kgld with a few
more hours of precipitation for Kmck left. For Kgld, Ifr
conditions should give way to Mvfr within a hour with rain/snow
showers near the site. Mvfr conditions will continue until 13z
Wednesday when vfr conditions return. North winds near 20 knots
with gusts to around 30 knots expected until 01z. From 01z to 15z
the winds will north to northwest near 10 knots. At 16z north
winds will increase to near 16 knots with gusts to near 24 knots.

For Kmck, Mvfr conditions are expected until 09z when they become
Ifr. At 15z, the conditions will return to Mvfr and continue
through the end of the period. Until 02z, north winds near 18
knots with gusts to around 27 knots are expected. At 02z, the
winds will shift to the northwest and decrease to near 11 knots.




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