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000
FXUS63 KGLD 211125
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
525 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog may develop along and north of Interstate 70
  in northeast Colorado and adjacent Kansas border counties this
  morning.

- Near to above average temperatures are forecast for the week.
  There could be daily small chances for rain/storms.

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are
  anticipated Thursday for locations along/south of I-70 and
  west of Highway 27.

- Severe weather possible Thursday generally east of Highway
  283.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 237 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

For today, the morning could start with some lingering clouds and
patchy fog across the area. Any fog should burn off a few hours
after sunrise, but the cloud cover could linger until the early
afternoon. Even if clouds linger, full mixing should be able to
occur, though temperatures may struggle to warm to 60 given the high
pressure that will be over the area.

Tomorrow is still forecast to be much warmer with temperatures
nearing 80 underneath sunny skies and with warm air advecting into
the area ahead of an upper disturbance. The warm and dry conditions
could allow RH to reach the teens, but critical fire weather
conditions either wouldn`t occur or occur briefly as winds are
forecast to struggle to reach 20-25 mph in a broad pressure
gradient. As the upper low and accompanying surface slow swing
through the area during the afternoon hours, there could be a few
storms that fire up along the surface convergence zone. If they did,
they`d likely be non-severe with generally less than a 1000 J/KG of
CAPE forecast and not much moisture available to help storms sustain
themselves.

Tuesday, current forecast calls for highs to be a bit lower than
Monday at around 70 with a slightly cooler air mass and high
pressure over the area. However, upper ridging is forecast to begin
building into the area which may allow temperatures to be a few
degrees warmer than currently forecast. Otherwise, dry conditions
are expected through the day unless a few storms can fire up over
the higher terrain in Colorado along with a potential weak shortwave
moving through during the evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Wednesday...there is a little better agreement this morning amongst
the GFS/ECMWF/GEM/GEFS models regarding the speed of an approaching
upper level trough compared to 24 hours ago. Presently, the base of
the upper trough with potentially a closed 564dam center is forecast
to be near southwest Utah by 12z Thursday. In response, light 6 hour
pressure falls of 3-8mb are forecast during the day, resulting in
breezy to windy southerly winds, gusting 30 to possibly 40 mph
during the day with gusts up to 35 mph overnight.

High temperatures are currently forecast to be in the lower to upper
70s. However, GFS/ECMWF/GEM 850mb temperatures ranging from 10C to
18C would support cooler temperatures by some 3F to 10F, based on
typical mixing. Wont make too many changes just yet. Low
temperatures look to be in the 40s to around 50 as the modest
southerly winds transport modest low level moisture into the area.
If the GFS verifies, the boundary layer becomes saturated and could
support a threat for fog around/shortly after midnight.

We`ll need to watch for the possibility of morning showers across
the eastern parts of the area in the morning which move out of the
area in the afternoon. Another batch of moisture in the 850-500mb
layer moves into the area from the Colorado front range overnight,
supporting a 20%-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms generally
east of Highway 25 and along the KS/NE border.

Thursday...there is much better agreement amongst the
GFS/ECMWF/GEM/GEFS models compared to 24 hours ago. Currently, the
upper trough axis west of us Wednesday is forecast to become
slightly negatively tilted as it reaches central Colorado during the
day, continuing northeast toward either the Nebraska panhandle
(ECMWF/GEM/GEFS) or a bit elongated into central Nebraska to south
central Kansas (GFS).

Modest 6 hour pressure falls continue through the day, supporting
southeast to southwest winds gusting 25 to 35 mph. Overnight, winds
veer around to the southwest and northwest with gusts in the 25 to
35 mph range on the backside of the low pressure system.

The ECMWF/GEM models which show hints of a dry slot in the 850-500mb
layer, moving in from the southwest in the afternoon, continuing
northeast for much of the night with perhaps some wraparound
precipitation across the northwest portion of the area after
midnight. This would greatly limit overall coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. The GFS model maintains a stratus deck of much of the
area during the day with the dryline nosing into perhaps southwest
Cheyenne county Colorado. So, details need to be worked out as we
get closer in time. Presently, there is a 20%-50% chance for
showers/thunderstorms for much of the area (except extreme southwest
portions of the area) during the day with 20%-60% chances for
showers/thunderstorms overnight for the entire area (highest chances
north of Interstate 70). Locations generally east of Highway 283
remain in a risk for severe weather per Storm Prediction Centers
Day 5 outlook.

High temperatures are currently forecast to be in the upper 70s to
upper 80s which is supported by the ECMWF/GEM 850mb temperatures. If
the more stable/cloudy GFS verifies, temperatures will be much
colder. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 40s to
middle 50s.

Near critical to potentially critical fire weather conditions are
currently anticipated generally along/south of Interstate 70 and
west of Highway 27.

Friday...as Thursdays storm moves away from the area another low
pressure system dives southeast into Nevada, reinforcing the mean
upper trough to the west and southwest of the Continental Divide.

We`ll have breezy northwest winds during the day in wake of the
departing storm with northeast winds of 10 to 15 mph overnight. High
temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 70s to around 80 with
low temperatures in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

Wraparound showers/thunderstorms (20%-50%) are currently forecast
for much of the area during the day (highest chances north of
Interstate 70), decreasing to around 20%-40% overnight for areas
generally north of the interstate which may be a bit optimistic
given moisture availability amongst the GFS/ECMWF/GEM models.

Near critical fire weather conditions are possible across Greeley
and Wichita counties.

Saturday...there is pretty good agreement amongst the GFS/ECMWF/GEFS
models in 500mb flow from the southwest, in between high pressure
over the southeast United States and an upper level trough over the
western portion of the country. Southeasterly winds slowly increase
through the day with gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range. High
temperatures look to be in the lower 70s to around 80 with low
temperatures in the 40s. We currently have 20%-50% chances for
showers and thunderstorms during the day and overnight hours which
look rather optimistic (too high) when compared to the GFS/ECMWF 850-
500mb relative humidity forecasts which have a rather large dry slot
over the area through the period. The GEM model brings low pressure
into the area and with it better moisture and higher chances for
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 522 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the
period, though will need to be careful during the first 3 hours
as low ceilings are near Goodland and fog keeps trying to form
over McCook. Chances for both to worsen and cause impacts are
currently around 25% so opted not to include in the TAFs at this
time. Otherwise, the remainder of the period will see skies
clear and near surface winds shift to out of the south around 10
kts. Will need to watch for LLWS around 200-500ft after 03Z as
near surface winds could increase to 40 kts (from the south).

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...KAK