Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 251748
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1148 AM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter storm will continue to affect the region through
  tonight. Blizzard conditions expected over much of northeast
  Colorado, northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska, where
  travel will be difficult or impossible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 315 AM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

The main wx concern for the short term period remains on the current
blizzard/blizzard-like conditions going on across the area, for
additional snowfall and blowing snow due to wind gusts up to 50 mph
or higher at times.

Currently, cloudy skies along with snow continue to pinwheel from
north to south over the area. With a surface low off to our
east/southeast, winds area-wide remain northerly with gusts near 50
mph as of 200 AM MDT, and temps in the 20s.

The bulk of precip currently on radar is focused over eastern
portions of the area. This lines up well with the current positions
of the 850/700/500 mb lows from the latest RAP40 analysis. Strong
frontogenesis at 850mb is helping to enhance snowfall east as
moisture pinwheels into the region on the backside of the low
complex(850-500mb). They are pushing slowly eastward towards central
Kansas.

The latest CAMs (HRRR, RAP, NamNest) show some enhancement of
snowfall as the system continues a trek eastward through the day.
Some differences in areal coverage, but north central/northeastern
portions of the area stand to see the most additional snowfall
before things taper off this evening. While some areas in the
Blizzard Warning could see isolated gusts near 60 mph this morning,
overall top gusts from 12z Monday onward should peak into the 50-55
mph range. This will keep blowing snow concerns in the forefront,
especially along/north of I-70. Have continued the Blizzard Warning
as well as the Winter Wx Advisory with up to an additional 1-5
inches. Higher snowfall totals will occur in the blizzard area.

While some lingering snow showers will remain through 06z Tuesday in
the east, overall precipitation will taper off in tandem with the
stronger winds. This will allow for a strong surface ridge to begin
nosing south into the area tonight, clearing skies from west to east
into Tuesday morning. The result of the clearing skies and snowpack
on the ground will allow for below normal temperatures to occur area-
wide.

Going into Tuesday, the aforementioned ridge will continue its trek
south and east into the central Plains, before moving eastward on
Wednesday. Guidance shows another lee-side trough to set up midweek
as well. This will give the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe mainly
precip free conditions with increasing temperatures by midweek as
surface winds trend southwest by Wednesday. Remaining snowpack may
impact temperatures, especially Tuesday. guidances shows a weak mid
level shortwave on Wednesday that may interact with the lee-side
trough to trigger at least some increased cloud cover in Colorado
with a low (15-20%) chance for some light rw/sw in western portions
of Yuma/Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties. Not looking for anything
impactful from this at this time.

For temps, daytime highs today will mainly range in the 20s, with a
few isolated areas around 30F. On Tuesday, mid 30s east through the
mid 40s west into Colorado. Going into Wednesday, warmer area-wide
with upper 40s to mid 50s expected.

Overnight lows tonight will drop into the single numbers to mid
teens above zero. The expected snowpack around the area may impact
the expected numbers by a couple degrees. For Tuesday night, mid
teens to mid 20s will give way to mid and upper 20s for Wednesday
night.

Wind chill readings for the overnight periods will be worse tonight
with single numbers below zero, Tuesday night single numbers to mid
teens above zero and for Wednesday night, mid and upper teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 210 AM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Ridge axis will move across the area on Thursday. Next system
will be digging along the west coast Friday and not move much
through the weekend. The downstream flow over the central plains
will be southwest to zonal. It is possible by late in the
weekend that the western system starts to move out which would
bring a chance for light showers, but models in poor agreement
and it may be dry the entire period. Otherwise, temperatures
will be above normal with highs in the 60s and 70s and lows
mainly in the 30s. Given the warm temperatures, afternoon
relative humidity will drop into the teens just about every day,
especially in western areas. However, wind speeds will be
marginal at best for fire weather concerns, with only Thursday
showing some potential to reach gusts of 25 mph or higher.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

For KGLD and KMCK, winter storm will continue to impact the
terminals through ~06Z tonight as light snow falls periodically
and light snow already on the ground creates blowing snow and at
times ground blizzard conditions. Mainly MVFR ceilings through
about 05z-09z Tuesday then VFR. Visibility in snow and blowing
snow will range at times from 6SM down to 1/2SM. Winds,
northerly 20-30kts. Gusts to 45kts are possible through 01z
this evening before gradually decreasing to 20-30 kts overnight.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Blizzard Warning until midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight for
     KSZ001>003-013-014.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight
     for KSZ004-015-016-027>029-041-042.
CO...Blizzard Warning until midnight MDT tonight for COZ090-091.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for COZ092.
NE...Blizzard Warning until midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...KMK


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