681
FXUS63 KGLD 070936
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
336 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for late Tuesday morning
  through Tuesday afternoon for Cheyenne County in Colorado, and
  Wallace, Wichita, Greeley and Logan counties in Kansas.
  Relative humidity values in the teens and winds gusting above
  25 MPH are expected.

- The next chance for thunderstorms will be Thursday afternoon
  for the northern two thirds of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024

Visible satellite imagery shows storms continue to move to the east,
further away from the area.  Areas along and east of the
Kansas/Colorado line are mostly sunny to sunny, with some cue
developing over northeastern and eastern Colorado.  Expect gusty
westerly to southwesterly winds across the area for the rest of
today, behind the Pacific front, diminishing this evening.  Low
relative humidity values (teens to 20s) will also be in place.
Critical to near critical fire weather conditions remain through
around sunset. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 8PM MDT
for Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado, and Sherman,
Wallace, Wichita, Greeley and Logan counties in northwestern Kansas.
 Dry conditions are expected overnight.

A closed low will remain over the western portion of the Dakotas
through the day on Tuesday.  Meanwhile, a broad, upper trough will
extend west to east from the PACNW to Minnesota and south into the
Tri-State area.  A tight pressure gradient and westerly winds will
make Tuesday another warm and windy day across the region.  Near-
critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected late
Tuesday morning through early evening, particularly for the southern
third of the area.  Minimum relative humidity values will fall into
the teens in the afternoon, with winds gusting above 25 MPH.  A Red
Flag Warning has been issued for Cheyenne County in Colorado, and
Wallace, Wichita, Logan, and Greeley counties in Kansas.  Afternoon
high temperatures will range from the mid-60s in Colorado, to
approaching 80 in the southern portions of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 335 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024

For the long term period, Thursday is forecast to be the coolest of
the period in the wake of an upper trough axis that swung through
the Plains. Highs are forecast to be in the 60`s with a mix of
clouds and sunshine. There is also a chance for showers and storms
(around 20-60%) as moisture advects into the area and the upper
trough axis swings through. Severe weather is not expected with a
lack of synoptic forcing and higher surface pressure across the area.

For Friday and beyond, the pattern gets a little trickier with the
trough axis swinging to the east while a portion of the trough
separates and moves west as a small cutoff low. With it, a mix of
upper ridging and split flow is forecast to occur which will
generally keep temperatures near to above average. Precipitation
chances will likely be on the lower side unless the cutoff low can
generate a system as it pushes east.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Gusty west to southwest surface winds will continue
through the period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ this morning to 7
    PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ027-028-041-042.
CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
     evening for COZ254.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wekesser
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...024