Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 162110

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
310 PM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Winds will quickly decrease around sunset tonight then slowly
back to the west and northwest at speeds under 10 mph. A clear to
mostly clear sky is expected with low temperatures in the low to
mid 20s.

On Saturday winds slowly back to the south and by noon through the
afternoon increase in speed along and west of the Colorado Kansas
border. Currently expecting breezy to windy conditions. Further east
light winds expected closer to the surface high. Afternoon
temperatures look to reach the upper 50s northeast to the low/mid
60s across the rest of the area under just a few high clouds.

For Saturday night am expecting low temperatures in the low to mid
30s under slowly increasing cloudiness.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Flow turns southwesterly aloft on Sunday as an upper trough moves
into the Desert Southwest. The low associated with this system
continues across the Rockies during the day and emerges onto the
central Plains Sunday night into early Monday. There is a potential
that this system could be significant for the region. However, it is
still a bit early and the storm track could change.

Rain chances enter the forecast Sunday afternoon as the low pushes
into the area. Some thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon and
evening. CAPE values of 500 J/kg or so and around 30 knots of shear,
combined with steep lapse rates and strong lift, may generate a few
severe thunderstorms in the eastern portion of the tri-state region.
Will provide updates on this.

Beyond the evening hours on Sunday, the chance for thunder decreases
as cooler air works its way into the area. With decreasing
temperatures, a transition from rain to snow is expected for
locations along and west of a line from McCook to Leoti overnight.
The current forecast calls for snow accumulations from a trace up to
a few inches, with the higher amounts in northwestern Yuma county.
Will see how this changes over the coming days. Snow switches back
to rain on Monday with daily warming, and precipitation pushes east
out of the region through Monday evening.

Another consideration for Sunday night into Monday will be strong
northwest winds on the backside of the low. If these coincide with
snowfall, we could see some blowing snow issues.

Dry weather returns to the area by Tuesday as northwest flow
develops aloft. Upper ridging builds into the High Plains from the
west, keeping the forecast dry through at least Thursday. A warming
trend is also expected during this time. The next system looks to
generate precipitation chances Friday into the weekend.

High temperatures reach the 60s on Sunday before dropping into the
40s for Monday. This is followed by a warming trend through the end
of the long term, from the 50s on Tuesday to near 70 degrees on
Friday. Lows will range from the 20s to 30s throughout the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1030 AM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

KGLD, mvfr cigs possible through 20z then vfr conditions for the
rest of the period. Wraparound cloudiness may produce some mvfr
cigs for a few hours after taf issuance with northwest winds
gusting near 50kts. For tonight winds slowly back to the west
under perhaps a few high clouds. On Saturday winds slowly back to
the southeast and approach 10kts toward the end of the period.

KMCK, ifr cigs with reduced visibilities in light to possibly
moderate rain expected from taf issuance through about 23z with
winds gusting 35 to possibly 40kts from the northwest. After 00z
vfr conditions return with winds slowly backing to the west at
speeds under 5kts.


Issued at 310 PM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Near critical fire weather conditions are possible Saturday across
far eastern Colorado.




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