Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 210536
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1136 PM MDT Sun May 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1026 PM MDT Sun May 20 2018

High resolution output has been very consistent in developing and
spreading fog/dense fog across most of my area. Hrrr and Rap have
been hanging on this solution for most of the shift. The new Nam
is close to those models and the arw/nmm close to them as well.
Fog is starting to develop over my eastern areas and just east
pretty close to the Hrrr and Rap solutions. So have issued a Dense
Fog Advisory for all my Nebraska and Kansas counties. Feel the
most confident on these counties. Not all of models take the fog
into Colorado. That will need to be watched to see if the advisory
needs to be expanded.

UPDATE Issued at 712 PM MDT Sun May 20 2018

Just completed an update. The main change was to increase the
coverage of the fog from later this evening into Monday morning.
High resolution guidance is consistent in developing and spreading
fog across most if not the entire area during this time. They do
differ a little on how fast they do this but the coverage is not
in question. They are also consistent in making it dense. Will
continue to monitor reality and model trends. It is possible will
need to collaborate/issue a dense fog advisory.

Also made minor adjustments to the dewpoints and winds along with
ramping up the sky cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 212 PM MDT Sun May 20 2018

Across the region this afternoon...skies are a psunny/msunny mix
with temperatures ranging from the mid 50s up to the lower 60s.
Winds are light from the NNE with some periodic gusts in the 15-20
mph range.

Over the Central Plains this afternoon...the back edge of the
circulation from the exiting low is still slowly drifting ENE out of
the eastern most zones. The remaining low cloud that has developed
and overspread central and western portions of the CWA is resulting
from daytime heating effects and the nosing of a surface ridge
coming down from the north...keeping low level moisture in place.
Some of this cloud cover will dissipate at sunset.

Going into tonight...expected ridge to crest over the region sliding
east of the area during the day Monday. With low level moisture
remaining in place...will be going with some developing fog mainly
for eastern locales...which will be closest to the ridge axis going
into Monday morning before dissipating.

For Monday on thru Tuesday night...H5 ridge traversing the region
will keep WAA on SW flow into the area...with a lee-side trough
working off the Front Range. The result of this will have above
normal temps for the region with chances for some trw/rw. Focus for
the first round will occur over far western portions of the area
Monday night. Limited instability will keep severe potential low and
we are currently in the General category on SPC for this timeframe.

Second round will occur as this trough moves east into the Plains on
Tuesday...followed quickly on its heels by a shortwave off the
Rockies Tuesday night. Looking for some thunder potential but below
severe at this time.

For temps...highs in the 80s will give way to overnight lows in mid
50s to the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM MDT Sun May 20 2018

In the extended the models starts out showing a ridge over the High
Plains and an upper level closed low centered over the Nevada/Utah
border. This is influencing the region with southwesterly flow
aloft. The low looks to become an open wave as it makes its way
north across the Rockies. Heading into Friday, this, now, open wave
will travel along the Canadian border and the northern Plains, as
the ridge weakness and moves towards the east. As this wave
transitions east into the Great Lakes on Saturday, another ridge of
high pressure builds over our area from the west, resulting in
northwesterly flow aloft over the High Plains.

Due to the influence from the wave moving across the northern
Rockies, there are minimal shower and thunderstorm chances across
portions of our region each afternoon/evening Wednesday through
Friday. With the ridge building moving into the region conditions
looks to be dry on Saturday.

Temperatures will remain above normal throughout the period with
highs in the middle 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows dropping
into the middle 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1129 PM MDT Sun May 20 2018

For Kgld, conditions will start vfr and should become Ifr between
07z and 08z then Ifr/Lifr by 10z. The Ifr/Lifr will continue until
17z. At 17z vfr conditions will return for the remainder of the
period. Winds will start out southeast around 7 knots and then
shift to the south and increase to near 15 knots around 15z. At
17z those winds will increase to 18 knots with gusts to around 26
knots. At 00z those will decrease to 13 knots.

For Kmck, conditions be or shortly become mvfr at the beginning of
the period. Within an hour of that, ifr/lifr conditions will begin
and continue until 15z. From 15z to 17z mvfr conditions are
expected with a return to vfr conditions at 17z. Winds will be
light and variable or light southeast until late morning. Around
17z those winds will be south around 15 knots. At 19z the winds
will increase to 19 knots with gusts to around 27 knots. At 01z
those winds decrease to near 12 knots.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ Monday for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ Monday for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BULLER



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