Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
933
FGUS73 KGLD 142145
ESFGLD
COC017-063-125-KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-
203-NEC057-087-145-150945-
Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
345 PM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024 /445 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024/
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook...
This outlook applies to the Goodland Hydrologic Service Area (HSA)
which refers to major rivers located...
- In Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado
- In Dundy, Hitchcock and Red Willow counties in Nebraska
- In 13 northwest Kansas counties whose southeast boundaries are
delineated by Greeley, Wichita, Logan, Gove, Graham and Norton
counties.
These river systems include:
-The Republican River
-The North and South Forks of the Republican River
-The North and South Forks of the Solomon River
-The Saline and Smoky Hill Rivers
-Beaver, Sappa and Prairie Dog Creeks
This outlook is valid from March 14 to 28.
Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give an
advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil
moisture, snowpack, magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook
is issued. Outlooks are also based on normal future temperature and
precipitation. Thus, if future conditions are not normal, then
actual crests will differ from this outlook. The vast majority of
flood events in the Goodland Service Area result from short periods
of higher intensity precipitation, or longer periods of excessive
precipitation.
For calendar year so far, the HSA has seen 0.5 to 3 inches of
precipitation, with majority of it falling in the central to
southeastern HSA.
No known snowpack remains. Current soil temperatures are ranging
from the mid 40s to low 50s, according to the latest two and four
inch soil temperatures, courtesy of the Kansas State mesonet.
Soil moisture conditions are currently slightly above to near
normal over the area. Near to slightly below normal temperatures
for the upcoming week are expected to slowly dry soil conditions.
The current Drought Monitor Index (www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu) shows
a small amount of severe drought over the far eastern HSA quickly
becoming less severe to the west. East of the Colorado border and
north of I-70, abnormally dry conditions are found with the
remainder of the HSA not classified by the drought monitor. The 3-
month outlook(valid for March 1 - May 1), has drought conditions
improving across the entire Goodland Service Area.
NOAA`s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) (www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov),
shows the latest 8-14 day outlook forecasting below normal
temperatures and above normal precipitation for the March 20 - 26
period. The latest 3-month outlook for March, April, and May,
forecasts equal chances for above and below normal temperatures
and leans towards above normal precipitation.
Reservoir level conservation pool capacities currently range at
Enders Dam, 19.8 percent. For the Medicine Creek, 95.6percent.
For the Norton Dam in northwest Kansas, 52.5 percent. For the Red
Willow Dam, 47.9 percent and for the Trenton Dam, 57.9 percent.
All of these are showing an increase from over the past two weeks.
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range
planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts
are part of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic
prediction service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/gld for more weather and water
information.
Flooding potential over the next two weeks is unlikely, but
cannot be ruled out entirely due to above average precipitation
being expected.
The next Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook will be issued
in 2025.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:SMOKY HILL R AT OAKLEY KS 22S
OKYK1 9.0 11.0 13.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:HACKBERRY CR AT GOVE KS 4W
GOVK1 19.0 21.0 23.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SMOKY HILL R AT ARNOLD KS 12N
ARNK1 7.0 9.0 11.0 6 14 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SMOKY HILL R AT SCHOENCHEN KS 2E
SCSK1 11.0 14.0 17.0 7 9 <5 6 <5 <5
:BIG CR AT ELLIS KS
ELLK1 15.0 17.0 19.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BIG CR AT HAYS KS 2SSE
HYSK1 26.0 29.0 32.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SMOKY HILL R AT RUSSELL KS 8S
RSLK1 18.0 20.0 38.0 <5 9 <5 5 <5 <5
:SMOKY HILL R AT ELLSWORTH KS
ELWK1 20.0 24.0 27.0 5 9 <5 6 <5 <5
:SALINE R AT WAKEENEY KS 5N
WAAK1 13.0 15.0 17.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SALINE R AT RUSSELL KS 5N
RUSK1 18.0 20.0 23.0 5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
:LENORA AT LENORA KS
LNRK1 10.0 12.0 14.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:N FK SOLOMON R AT GLADE KS 1S
GDEK1 11.0 16.0 18.0 6 15 <5 8 <5 <5
:BOW CR AT STOCKTON KS 9N
SKTK1 9.0 12.0 13.6 11 23 <5 7 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:SMOKY HILL R
OKYK1 4.0/ 4.1/ 4.2/ 6.0/ 7.1/ 7.8/ 8.4
:HACKBERRY CR
GOVK1 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.3/ 9.0/ 10.4
:SMOKY HILL R
ARNK1 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.1/ 1.7/ 4.7/ 6.1/ 7.2
SCSK1 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 3.3/ 5.8/ 8.8/ 12.8
:BIG CR
ELLK1 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.5/ 10.2/ 11.8/ 12.6
HYSK1 4.8/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 5.7/ 8.3/ 16.1/ 17.7
:SMOKY HILL R
RSLK1 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.9/ 6.4/ 10.5/ 13.5/ 16.8
ELWK1 1.3/ 1.4/ 3.9/ 6.6/ 10.0/ 16.1/ 21.3
:SALINE R
WAAK1 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 4.6/ 9.3/ 11.3
RUSK1 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.4/ 7.0/ 8.9/ 15.6/ 17.8
:LENORA
LNRK1 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.9/ 3.8/ 4.9/ 6.4/ 6.8
:N FK SOLOMON R
GDEK1 2.9/ 2.9/ 3.2/ 5.3/ 8.5/ 10.0/ 13.4
:BOW CR
SKTK1 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.4/ 4.7/ 7.1/ 9.3/ 11.2
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:SMOKY HILL R
OKYK1 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9
:HACKBERRY CR
GOVK1 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1
:SMOKY HILL R
ARNK1 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
SCSK1 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.3/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0
:BIG CR
ELLK1 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4
HYSK1 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:SMOKY HILL R
RSLK1 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.3/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0
ELWK1 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 0.9
:SALINE R
WAAK1 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5
RUSK1 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2
:LENORA
LNRK1 2.1/ 2.0/ 1.6/ 1.1/ 0.7/ 0.5/ 0.3
:N FK SOLOMON R
GDEK1 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.1
:BOW CR
SKTK1 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.0/ 4.0
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:S FK REPUBLICAN R AT BENKELMAN NE
BEKN1 9.0 11.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ARIKAREE R AT HAIGLER NE
HAIN1 12.0 14.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:REPUBLICAN R AT BENKELMAN NE 1SW
BENN1 7.0 9.0 11.0 10 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:REPUBLICAN R AT STRATTON NE
STTN1 11.0 13.0 15.0 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:FRENCHMAN CR AT PALISADE NE
PALN1 7.0 8.0 9.0 18 13 5 <5 <5 <5
:STINKING WATER CR AT PALISADE NE 2NW
PASN1 10.0 11.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:FRENCHMAN CR AT CULBERTSON NE
CULN1 8.0 10.0 12.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:DRIFTWOOD CR AT MCCOOK NE 4SW
MCKN1 17.0 19.0 21.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:REPUBLICAN R AT MCCOOK NE 1SE
MKRN1 9.0 11.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:REPUBLICAN R AT CAMBRIDGE NE 1E
CAMN1 9.0 10.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:REPUBLICAN R AT ORLEANS NE 2W
ORNN1 9.0 11.0 13.0 16 21 6 15 <5 9
:BEAVER CR AT LUDELL KS
LDLK1 9.0 11.0 13.0 40 43 7 7 <5 <5
:BEAVER CR AT CEDAR BLUFFS KS
CDBK1 16.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BEAVER CREEK AT BEAVER CITY 4WSW
BEVN1 11.0 13.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SAPPA CR AT OBERLIN KS 1SW
OBNK1 11.0 14.0 17.0 30 31 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SAPPA CR AT NORCATUR KS 15NE
NCRK1 17.0 20.0 22.0 6 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SAPPA CR AT BEAVER CITY NE 7SW
BVSN1 16.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SAPPA CR AT STAMFORD NE 4E
STMN1 19.0 22.0 26.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:PRAIRIE DOG CR AT WOODRUFF KS 3WSW
WDRK1 19.0 24.0 30.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:S FK REPUBLICAN R
BEKN1 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.5/ 4.3/ 5.3/ 5.4
:ARIKAREE R
HAIN1 7.3/ 7.4/ 7.4/ 8.4/ 10.1/ 10.6/ 10.8
:REPUBLICAN R
BENN1 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.9/ 5.9/ 7.0/ 7.3
STTN1 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.7/ 8.8/ 10.0/ 10.9
:FRENCHMAN CR
PALN1 3.8/ 3.8/ 4.0/ 4.9/ 5.8/ 7.8/ 8.0
:STINKING WATER CR
PASN1 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.6/ 4.5/ 6.0/ 6.6
:FRENCHMAN CR
CULN1 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.2/ 5.0/ 6.7/ 7.8
:DRIFTWOOD CR
MCKN1 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.4/ 9.1/ 11.9/ 14.8/ 15.2
:REPUBLICAN R
MKRN1 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.4/ 6.3/ 7.2/ 8.1/ 8.2
CAMN1 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 3.5/ 5.3/ 6.9/ 8.1
ORNN1 1.4/ 1.4/ 2.3/ 4.5/ 7.2/ 9.8/ 11.8
:BEAVER CR
LDLK1 3.8/ 3.8/ 4.4/ 7.6/ 9.9/ 10.4/ 11.0
CDBK1 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 7.2/ 9.2/ 10.0/ 11.3
:BEAVER CREEK
BEVN1 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.9/ 5.5/ 8.4/ 9.7/ 10.7
:SAPPA CR
OBNK1 2.7/ 2.7/ 3.2/ 8.5/ 12.2/ 13.5/ 13.8
NCRK1 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 8.8/ 14.5/ 16.6/ 17.1
BVSN1 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 5.7/ 9.8/ 11.5/ 12.7
STMN1 6.6/ 6.6/ 6.7/ 9.6/ 11.8/ 14.1/ 14.3
:PRAIRIE DOG CR
WDRK1 1.4/ 1.4/ 4.2/ 7.3/ 10.7/ 13.8/ 17.6
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:S FK REPUBLICAN R
BEKN1 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.0/ 1.6/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5
:ARIKAREE R
HAIN1 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.1
:REPUBLICAN R
BENN1 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.3/ 3.0/ 2.9/ 2.8/ 2.7
STTN1 6.1/ 5.9/ 5.4/ 5.0/ 4.8/ 4.7/ 4.7
:FRENCHMAN CR
PALN1 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.3
:STINKING WATER CR
PASN1 2.8/ 2.7/ 2.5/ 2.2/ 1.6/ 0.0/ 0.0
:FRENCHMAN CR
CULN1 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2
:DRIFTWOOD CR
MCKN1 3.0/ 2.9/ 2.7/ 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4
:REPUBLICAN R
MKRN1 3.7/ 3.5/ 3.3/ 3.2/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1
CAMN1 1.4/ 1.2/ 1.1/ 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8
ORNN1 1.3/ 1.0/ 0.6/ 0.4/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2
:BEAVER CR
LDLK1 2.5/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0
CDBK1 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5
:BEAVER CREEK
BEVN1 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5
:SAPPA CR
OBNK1 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0
NCRK1 4.8/ 4.7/ 4.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0
BVSN1 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8
STMN1 6.5/ 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.1/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0
:PRAIRIE DOG CR
WDRK1 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4
$$