014
FXUS63 KLBF 030921
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
421 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Becoming windy this morning into this afternoon across
  southwest Nebraska.

- Showers and thunderstorms spread west to east across Nebraska
  this afternoon into this evening. Some storms will have
  potential for damaging wind and large hail mainly along and
  south of Highway 2. An isolated tornado can not be ruled out
  primarily well south of Interstate 80 heading toward the
  Kansas border.

- After a mostly dry weekend, windy conditions with showers and
  thunderstorms return Sunday night into Monday with potential
  for severe storms late Monday especially east of Highway 83.

- Temperatures a bit cool through the weekend, then after a
  brief warmup trending back below normal mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

There will be some sprinkles/light showers this morning as a
warm front pushes northward and eventually stalls out across
northern Nebraska. Behind this front southerly winds across
southwest Nebraska will howl this morning into this afternoon as
diurnal heating mixes down some high momentum from a brisk low
level jet. These southerly winds will also bring moisture into
Nebraska ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the
northwest. However the moisture is somewhat limited and meso
guidance is in general agreement that this will prevent
significant destabilization with mean SBCAPE values ahead of the
cold front and south of the warm front generally 500 to 900
J/Kg. With strong forcing from the front this will be enough
instability to support convection along/ahead of the cold front
that will move across southwestern Nebraska generally from west
to east late this afternoon through this evening, though the
lack of significant instability will be a key limiting factor
preventing a more serious convective threat today.

Ample shear will be present with 0-3km bulk shear values generally
at or above 30kt creating fairly well shaped hodographs, though
with little orthogonal component of deep layer shear vectors to
the cold front expect initial development will evolve into a
linear convective mode, perhaps with several clusters/line
segments coalescing into one more dominant QLCS structure along
the southern flank building toward the greater instability
further south. Steep low level lapse rates and modest DCAPEs
will support potential for strong gusty winds and lapse rates
aloft may be able to support a threat for large hail. An
isolated QLCS spin up tornado also can not be ruled out
primarilyfurther south closer to the better instability
heading toward the KS border. Storms move off to the east early
tonight, leaving dry but cool conditions across central and
western Nebraska through the first part of the weekend.

With the warm front lingering across the region today there will
be a good spread to temperatures. Highs will range from the
lower 50s across northwest Nebraska to the lower 70s south of
I-80. Saturday will be uniformly cool with highs generally in
the lower 60s. Lows tonight will generally be in the upper 20s
to lower 30s, and in the 30s tomorrow night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Sunday, A deep upper trough will move into the Great Basin with
a closed low centered over Nevada. Upper flow will be
southwesterly over the area with dewpoints rising into the mid
40s to low 50s with a slight chance for afternoon showers.

Sunday night through Monday night, the upper trough will take on
a negative tilt and extend from western MT through southeastern
CO by 18Z Monday. May see a distinct dryline develop across the
west with dewpoints into the 50s across the east. Models agree
showers and storm will increase through the day as they move
eastward. Due to a strongly sheared environment with steep
lapse rates, surface features will play as strong role in where
the strong to severe storms focus. SPC is highlighting a Slight
Risk for severe weather Monday into Monday evening east of
Highway 83. A further westward shift is possible. Keep informed
of future updates on the evolution of this approaching system
Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday, the upper flow will remain fairly
zonal as a fairly west to east upper trough and closed low
extends across the Northern Plains. This will keep at least a
low chance for showers and perhaps a few afternoon evening
thunderstorms in the forecast. Highs will remain slightly below
normal mainly in the 60s during the period. Windy conditions
possible Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR will continue through midday Friday for western and north
central Nebraska terminals, then aviation weather concerns
arise. Clouds thicken and ceilings lower throughout the day as a
storm system approaches the area. Rain showers begin to
overspread northern terminals (VTN) by late morning, then a line
of thunderstorms will likely cross the area late afternoon or
early evening with additional rain showers to follow. A
boundary will separate strong southerly winds gusting 30kts at
southern terminals (LBF) from relatively lighter east/northeast
flow for northern terminals (VTN). Winds should flip to
north/northwesterly behind the storms around sunset.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Snively