924
FXUS63 KLBF 151133
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
633 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms chances continue today as a cold
  front crosses the region.

- Warm and dry conditions Thursday and Friday, with highs well
  above average in the low to mid 80s Friday.

- An active weather pattern returns Saturday night, and again
  Sunday through Tuesday. Heavy rainfall with the threat for
  severe weather is possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Today, a positively tilted upper trough was currently located
from central North Dakota through western South Dakota into
central Wyoming. A cold front has passed through most of western
Nebraska early this morning, with a reinforcing cold front to
move through today. Isolated to scattered rain showers currently
extend from southeast Wyoming and northern Colorado into
portions of southwest Nebraska. These showers will remain
possible this morning across southwestern areas. Then, as the
upper trough moves in late this morning thorugh this afternoon,
showers and a few thunderstorms will develop across the
northwest Sandhills southeastward across north central into
southwest and central Nebraska. The latest CAMs indicate at
least scattered coverage this afternoon into early this evening,
while the ECMWF and NAM are more widespread. This forecast has
POPS near 60 percent for at least a few hours this afternoon
into early this evening. H85 to H7 lapse rates will be steep
near 8 to 9C ahead of the expected shower development. Not
expecting any strong storms in the post frontal airmass.
However, gusty winds of 30 mph or greater will be possible, due
to drier air present from the surface through 800mb. Highs will
be cooler from the mid 60s to low 70s with partly to mostly
cloudy skies and the existence of showers during peak heating.
Any showers or thunderstorms early evening should end across the
southeast by 03Z.

Tonight, skies will clear out with lows from the lower 40s
western Sandhills to the mid 40s central and east.

Thursday, the upper flow will become west northwest. Skies
mostly sunny with light westerly winds. Highs will range from
the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Dry conditions continue Thursday night and Friday as mid level
height rises occur. Highs by Friday to warm into the mid 80s.

As an upper trough moves into the Northern Plains Friday night
and Saturday, a cold front and weak lift ahead of this feature
will bring a slight chance for showers and a few thunderstorms
Friday night to the western Sandhills and north central
Nebraska. Saturday looks dry attm behind a cold front.

Storm chances return Saturday night, then Sunday through at
least Monday night. An upper trough will deepen across the
Northwestern U.S during this time, with a frontal boundary and
active weather expected across the Central Plains. This will
bring the potential for heavy rainfall, along with the
possibility for some severe weather.

Highs in the 70s Saturday, 80 to 85 Sunday, the 70s Monday, and
the upper 60s to low 70s Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Lower cigs across the northern Sandhills through late afternoon
bringing MVFR conditions.Chance of rain showers this morning
with a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon,
expect most of the activity to be out of the area by early
evening. Winds will generally be out of the northwest this
morning through afternoon around 10 to 15 kts with gust of 20
kts, then winds will start to switch across northern Nebraska
tonight to the west around 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Gomez