Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 270558
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1258 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

We are mired in a summertime pattern when we shouldn`t be. What
happened to spring this yr? High temps for late may should be in
the mid-upr 70s. One thing is for sure...the atms has never cared
about the calendar.

Aloft: The polar jet is far to the N over Canada. A cut-off low
was over NV with a moderately high-amplitude ridge downstream over
the Plns. This ridge will drift a little E of the rgn tomorrow
while a shortwave trof rotates around the base of the Wrn low and
lifts across Neb/KS in SW flow.

Surface: The rgn was in the warm sector with developing low pres
over WY and a weak Bermuda high over the Atlc. A Pac cool front
was making its way slowly thru the Wrn USA. The rgn will remain in
the warm sector thru tomorrow. The Nrn portion of the cool front
will advance into the Nrn Plns as WY low pres heads that way.

Rest of this afternoon: Hot. Sunny. Light winds. Low dwpts are
keeping it from being oppressive.

343 PM UPDATE: after evaluating the CU field from GRI/AUH down to
BIE...some CU are beginning to build. So the 88D has been put in
precip mode. There is a relative minimum in MLCAPE there due to
deep mixing (dwpts have crashed into the low-mid 50s). But MLCAPE
is still 1500-1900 J/kg. 0-6 km shear is about 20 kt. That
environment could support a pulse svr tstm. Will update the HWO
shortly for 1" hail and 50 kt gusts. Sounding are invert-V below
700 mb.

We will be watching for a record-tying or record-breaking high at
GRI. As of this writing...98F.

Tonight: Increasing high clds/cirrostratus. Wanted to go m/cldy W
of Hwy 281 but held it back to p/cldy. There is a lot of thick
cirrostratus on IR satellite in advance of the trof. Another very
mild night. Lows will be about 15F above normal.

Could be a record warm night at GRI if the fcst low is right. See
climate sxn below.

Tomorrow: P-M/cldy at least thru midday. Am concerned we may not
be hot enough with temps. It`s hard to know how much thick clds
will impact temps. It looks like the tail of the shortwave trof
will lift N in the afternoon. That means decreasing clds and in
this air mass already primed for big time heat.

Record highs are within reach tomorrow...espcly at HSI.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Aloft: The low currently over NV will weaken gradually lift into
the Nrn Plns by Tue. Multiple vort maxima will be orbiting this
low and will modulate tstm activity as this occurs. The tail end
of the trof is fcst to cross Neb/KS Tue night. Weak WSW flow will
prevail Wed-Thu in advance of a deep baroclinic trof that will be
moving onshore in the W. A weak shortwave trof or two could move
thru before the more potent Wrn trof crosses the Desert SW and
arrives here Sat. Overall...the last 2 runs of the EC/GFS/UKMET/
GEM are in good agreement on this scenario.

Surface: The CWA will remain in the warm sector until the weak Wrn
USA cool front moves thru late Tue. Small/weak high pres will
build in Wed. Then it`s back to the warm sector Thu-Fri as lee
cyclogenesis ensues in advance of a cool front. As things stand
now...the lee low is fcst to eject into Neb/KS Fri night along
with the cool front.

Temps: Some fluctuations between 80s and 90s every couple days...
but bottom line is nowhere near where we should be. 10-15F above
normal every day.

Precip: sct hit-or-miss tstms possible just about every day...but
most locations will remain dry most of the time. Right now the
"best" chance for tstms appears to be Mon night into Tue AM in
advance of the approaching trof. What would be ideal for a decent
swath of rain is for a nocturnal MCS to form. The rest of the
week is very iffy for rain. The rather potent system fcst to move
thru Fri-Sat will advect a fresh/uncontaminated EML over the rgn
likely resulting a strong cap that will severely restrict tstm
initiation in the warm sector.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

We are just expecting high clouds generally above twenty thousand
feet through the period. The wind will pick up out of the south
through the morning and could be gusty at times this afternoon.
The wind will die back down as we near sunset this evening. There
will be some low level wind shear in the Kearney area through dawn
and then again later this evening, but not strong enough to meet
thresholds for including in this TAF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

...Records That will be Threatened through Tomorrow...

Record High Temps for Today:
Grand Island....100 degrees in 2012 (Forecast: 100F)
Hastings........100 degrees in 2012 (Forecast: 97F)

Record High Temps for Tomorrow:
Grand Island....97 in 1912 (Forecast: 94F)
Hastings........93 in 2006, 1974, 1913 (Forecast: 93F)

Record Warm Low Temps for Tomorrow:
Grand Island....67 in 2006, 1969 (Forecast: 69F)
Hastings........68 in 1931 (Forecast: 68)

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Wesely
CLIMATE...Billings Wright/Pfannkuch/Thies/Kelley


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