Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 240540 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1240 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow will increase in coverage and intensity late tonight and through
  Sunday. Light ice accumulations are possible near the I90
  corridor late tonight/early Sunday. Snowfall is expected to be
  periodic Sunday and Sunday night.

- Snow will continue to be heavy at times Sunday night through Monday
  night, especially across portions of eastern South Dakota and
  western Minnesota. Increasing northerly winds during that time
  will lead to deteriorating conditions such as blowing snow, low
  visibilities and potential blizzard conditions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Aviation discussion updated below for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 906 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

No major changes made to the forecast this evening. Things still
look on track for snow to begin to work its way in from the west
after midnight, then overspread the CWA by Sunday morning. No
changes made to the current Winter Storm Warning. No changes made
to winds or temperatures at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

The WAA band of light snow will continue to push east through the
rest of the afternoon and evening, likely gradually falling apart.
Attention then shifts toward incoming storm.  Satellite pics show
the system moving into southern California. The storm is progged to
move through the southwest four corners area tonight, before
ejecting northeast toward the Central/Northern Plains Sun/Sunday
night/Monday. The initial surge of UVM/moisture looks to move into
the region late tonight, and then continue periodically through
Monday. There will likely be times where the snow is light or quits
for a while based on CAM reflectivity data. After the initial WAA
surge Sunday, a deformation zone/trowal is expected to setup across
SE SD through central MN Sunday night through Monday, as the main
system lifts out across IA.  Snow amounts have trended down a touch
in the latest grids, which is supported to some degree by EPS 24hr
probs of 6 or 12 inches coming downward. While snow is the main
issue, there is also a threat of fzra late tnt and early Monday over
SC SD. HREF cranks out up to a tenth of an inch of accumulation said
region. The winds will start to become more of a factor Sunday night
and Monday, with gusts up to 50 mph at times, thus leading to some
blowing/drifting potential, as well as low vsbys. If conditions
become bad enough, upgrades may be needed Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

The long term portion of the forecast begins on Monday with a
surface low pressure system slowly moving across northwest Iowa.
Moderate to heavy snowfall should occur near the backside of the
surface low, with the grand ensemble showing a 30-70 percent chance
of QPF values exceeding 0.20 inches Monday morning, mainly along and
southeast of a line from Chamberlain, Redfield, and Sisseton. The
grand ensemble also shows the highest winds occurring on Monday,
with under a 20 percent chance of sustained winds exceeding 30 mph.
Mean wind gusts is around 36-40 mph. Buffer soundings also indicate
a mean wind gust of under 40 mph with a peak wind gust around 50
mph. The winds, along with the accumulating snowfall will gradually
diminish from west to east starting as early as Monday
afternoon/evening west of the Missouri River. The snow should be
east of the James River valley by 12Z Tuesday, and east of the CWA
around 0Z Wednesday. A surface high pressure moves into the area
from Canada mid week, producing highs in the 20s on Wednesday. Lows
in the single digits above zero can be expected Wednesday morning.
The grand ensemble suggests there is a 10 to 30 percent chance lows
will be below zero degrees F, mainly over eastern South Dakota.
Warmer, but still below average temperatures should move into the
area Thursday into Friday with highs reaching the 30s. Another low
pressure system may impact the region at the end of the period with
a 20-35% chance for rain and snow. The probability of seeing 0.03
inches in the 6 hour period is under 25 percent per the grand
ensemble.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR/IFR CIGs will continue to overspread the region through the
period, while -SN/SN/+SN also develops and pushes east and
produces IFR VSBY. Areas of BLSN may also affect the TAF sites.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Tuesday
     for SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Tuesday for
     SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048-051.

     Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM early this morning to 7 AM CDT
     Tuesday for SDZ005-006-010-017-018-036-037.

MN...Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Tuesday
     for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TMT


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