Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
509
FNUS71 KAKQ 301138
FWSAKQ
Spot Forecast for Dragon Run State Forest...Virginia Department of Forestry
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
738 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.
.DISCUSSION...
Very warm conditions continue today with min RH values of 35 to
40 percent. A weak cold front moves through tonight into
Wednesday, bringing isolated showers and storms later this evening
into tonight and scattered showers and storms Wednesday. Dry and
warm weather will prevail Thursday and Friday. Rain chances
increase Saturday with the next front.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......5300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (9100 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (101700 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................14 early in the morning increasing to 93 in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........24 25 26 27 35 42 50 57 64 70
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............67 71 75 79 82 84 85 85 85 84
RH..............73 63 58 50 44 41 39 39 39 40
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..8 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10
20 FT wind gust.14 14 16 19 19 19 19 19 16 16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 1.4 2.1 2.8 3.6 4.5 5.3 5.2 5.1 4.9
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW SW W SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.14 14 14 14 16 20 22 22 21 20
LVORI...........3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............14 26 37 43 59 77 93 93 88 80
Haines index....4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..9 17 25 34 52 77 102 100 93 83
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR FR GD VGD VGD GD GD
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
showers early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 63.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 9 mph in the evening and
overnight becoming light.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (51100 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (4100 knot-ft) late in the
night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................59 early in the evening decreasing to 7 late in
the night.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........75 80 85 82 80 78 77 76 74 74 73 73
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 10
Temp............82 79 76 74 72 71 69 69 69 68 67 65
RH..............44 49 56 59 64 66 70 70 70 73 78 84
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..9 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4
20 FT wind gust.15 13 11 11 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6
Mix hgt (kft)...3.5 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.17 14 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 10 10 10
LVORI...........1 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4
ADI.............59 19 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7
Haines index....5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..51 25 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 4 4
Ventrate Cat....FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
showers early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 14 mph shifting to the north 7 to 15
mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7600 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (36800 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................8 early in the morning increasing to 52 in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........71 68 59 57 61 48
Weather cov..... S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC
Weather type....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10 20 20 20 20 20
Temp............65 66 72 76 79 80
RH..............84 84 68 58 50 47
20 ft wind......SW 4 W 4 NW 4 NW 4 N 4 N 4
20 ft wind gust.6 6 6 6 6 6
Mix hgt (ft)....700 1300 2300 3700 5300 5700
Transport wind..W 12 NW 15 N 13 N 9 N 7 NW 7
LVORI...........4 4 3 1 1 1
ADI.............8 25 34 32 47 51
Haines index....3 2 3 3 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..8 17 25 29 33 36
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
$$
Forecaster...GINGRICH
Requested by...Dennis Gaston
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412760.0/AKQ
.DELDT 04/30/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dennis.gaston@dof.virginia.gov