Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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067 FXUS64 KAMA 061801 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 101 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 409 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Critical fire weather conditions highlight the short term forecast. These conditions are very likely both today and tomorrow for the western and central Panhandles. This afternoon, there is a low end chance for a storm or two to form across the eastern Panhandles. If storms are able to form, they could quickly become severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts the primary hazards. Early this morning, the low level jet has kicked in across the area and breezy to gusty winds are being observed across the Panhandles. The highest wind gusts have been around 45 mph so far but cannot rule out a few gusts near 50 mph for the northwestern Panhandles. The winds may a little near sunrise before ramping back up again late this morning into the afternoon hours. A Pacific front/dryline will begin to move across the Panhandles after sunrise this morning. This feature will usher in much drier air, with dew points dropping upwards of 50 degrees by mid afternoon today. Winds to the west of the dryline will become westerly and breezy to gusty winds will occur this afternoon. These conditions will lead to critical fire weather conditions today (for additional fire weather details, see the Fire Weather discussion below). How fast the dryline moves to the east will play a critical role in the severe thunderstorm threat for today. Most guidance does hold off convecting along the dryline until it mixes to western Oklahoma. However, the dryline has been further west most days this season compared to the guidance so cannot completely rule out a storm or two forming across the eastern Panhandles. If a storm is able to form, the environment will be primed for storms to quickly become severe, with large hail and damaging wind gusts the primary hazards. The storms will quickly move off into Oklahoma with the severe threat ending for the CWA by late afternoon to early evening. High temperatures for this afternoon will warm back up to the mid 70s west to mid 80s east. Tuesday will be very similar to today, other than there is no chances for storms across the area. The critical fire weather conditions are very likely once again (for additional fire weather details for Tuesday, see the Fire Weather discussion below). Leeside low pressure will tighten the pressure gradient across the area on Tuesday and breezy west winds will occur across the area. The current wind speed forecast for Tuesday is a bit slower than today, with gusts upwards of 35 to 40 mph. H850 WAA will be a bit stronger on Tuesday with mid 20s C progged temperatures by late afternoon over the region. With these warmer temperatures aloft and no cloud cover, highs for Tuesday afternoon should rise into the 80s area wide. Muscha && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 409 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Dry weather will continue Wednesday into Thursday as another upper level low pressure system organizes over the southern Great Basin region. A cold front will move through the area Wednesday night and will result in temperatures near or slightly below normal for Thursday through the weekend. Chances for showers and thunderstorms may return Friday afternoon through Sunday as the aforementioned upper level low pressure system initially around the southern Great Basin region moves eastward in a much weakened state. NBM slight chance to low end chance pops look reasonable at this time and were utilized in the grids for Friday through Sunday. 02 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through this period. The main concerns will come from strong winds this afternoon, and low level wind shear tonight at all sites. Winds will stay southwesterly and slowly veer straight west through the day. Winds at AMA should stay below 40 kts this afternoon, but if they over perform an AWW may be needed. Winds at the surface will eventually die down some overnight, but some speed shear aloft may be present. By tomorrow afternoon, breezy to strong winds will resume at all sites. Rangel && .FIRE WEATHER... Critical fire weather conditions are very likely today for the central and western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Breezy to gusty west winds are forecast for this afternoon with gusts up to 40 to 45 mph. Relative humidity values will drop down into the single digits today, with the lowest RH values around 7 percent. These conditions combined with continued dry grasses will lead to critical fire weather conditions and RFTI values between 5 to 9. A Red Flag Warning is in affect for this afternoon through early this evening. Critical fire weather conditions will likely occur again on Tuesday for the central and western Panhandles. Relative humidity recovery on Monday night will be very poor with forecast maximum RH values around 25 to 35 percent on Tuesday morning. West winds, albeit a bit weaker, on Tuesday are likely with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph. Minimum RH values by Tuesday afternoon will once again drop down to around 7 percent. These conditions will lead to RFTI values in the 4 to 8 range on Tuesday. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the central and west given these conditions for Tuesday afternoon and evening. Muscha && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 48 83 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 48 86 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 41 81 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 51 88 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 44 86 44 83 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 46 83 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 53 84 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 40 82 40 77 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 46 85 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 46 84 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 51 85 50 78 / 10 0 0 0 Pampa TX 50 84 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 52 84 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 52 85 54 82 / 0 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-002-006- 007-011-012-016-017-317. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for TXZ001-002-006-007-011-012-016-017-317. OK...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001-002. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for OKZ001-002. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...55