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000
FXUS63 KAPX 141709
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
109 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm during the first half of the week.

- Showers and gusty winds expected as we head toward mid-week.

- Colder temperatures late week into next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1043 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Overnight rains now well off to our east as weak low pressure
responsible for such pushes into southeast Ontario. Moisture starved
"cold" front extending back west from this low into central lower
Michigan. Weak post-frontal cold air advection will be more than
offset by plenty of sunshine across northern lower Michigan, helping
temperatures reach into the 60s this afternoon for most areas south
of the big bridge. Likely to see a few lower 70s down near Saginaw
Bay, as well as slightly cooler readings right near the big waters.
A bit more cloud cover across eastern upper will keep temperatures a
touch cooler up that way, with highs topping out in the 50s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Chances of showers and storms ending early this morning...then
dry thru tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...Slight chance of a few non-severe
thunderstorms for areas along and south of a line from Grand
Traverse Bay to Saginaw Bay early this morning.

Upstream low pressure system has reached the Upper Mississippi
Valley early this morning. Instability axis poking into Wisconsin
just ahead of the low center continues to produce an area of
convection over NE Wisconsin and much of Northern Michigan. Some
embedded thunder is still occurring...but remains elevated in nature
and is thus only producing some heavy rain and a few hits of
lightning. This precip event will be a "quick hitter" during the
early morning hours...and should largely end by around 12Z as the
low center quickly tracks thru and out of Lower Michigan early this
morning. Again...do not expect any threat of strong/severe storms
given the elevated nature of these storms. Any chances of thunder
should remain along and south of a line from Grand Traverse Bay to
Saginaw Bay along the northern edge of the instability axis.

Once this early morning precip ends...the rest of today should be
dry with decreasing clouds from SW to NE as this system exits
eastward away from Michigan. High temps this afternoon will range
from the 50s across Eastern Upper and far Northern Lower Michigan to
the lower 70s near Saginaw Bay. Tonight will be mainly clear and
cold with overnight lows cooling into the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short wave ridging will result in precipitation free and warm
conditions into much of Tuesday. A Pacific trough currently evident
on satellite imagery over north-central California will then lead to
increasing clouds/winds and shower chances late Tuesday and
especially Tuesday night. Southeast winds are expected to become
rather gusty late Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Highs ranging from the mid and upper 50s north to the mid and upper
60s south. Lows Monday night in the chilly 30s to around 40 then
mainly the 40s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The Pacific trough is expected to bring rain showers and
possible thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday night. Drier and
progressively colder air then follow for the end of the week into
the beginning of next weekend. There could even be a few snow
showers around during that time as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...

Expect any lingering MVFR cigs at KCIU to mix out this
afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions across the taf locations
through Monday under just a few passing higher level clouds.
Northwest winds may be a touch gusty this afternoon, and again
on Monday. Light winds tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria for the first part of
this week. Chances of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will
end early this morning...with dry wx expected for the first part of
this week.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MLR