Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 201807
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
207 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018

Dry northeast flow slowly winning out, helping scatter out the
lower clouds from north to south. Expect this trend to continue,
taking longest in our southern zones where passing high and mid
level clouds are limiting the solar insolation. These high clouds
will persist through the day, although deeper moisture and any
rain threat looks to stay south of our area. Temperatures will
respond accordingly to the increasing sun, with highs this
afternoon making a run into the middle 60s. Of course, those close
to the Great Lakes will remain a few degrees cooler.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018

Impactful weather: Low afternoon humidities with frost potential
tonight.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

The upper level flow is somewhat confluent out there early this
morning. WNW flow in nrn Michigan, associated with a passing
shortwave in Ontario within the nrn stream of the upper jet, and
more west/WSW mid level flow ahead of a shortwave working through
the heartland. The wave was also allowing for some higher level
clouds to cross nrn Michigan, over the top of deeper low level
moisture/stratus behind a departed cold front from yesterday. This
deeper low level moisture was dropping south with time as low level
winds were veering more N/NE and drawing in drier and increasingly
more downsloping flow from Ontario. This drier air was moving in on
the front flank of high pressure centered over the Dakotas where
light winds and clear skies prompted earlier issuance of frost
advisories there. Temperatures in CAA have been slowly dropping into
the 40s and even some upper 30s in eastern upper.

A pretty quiet period of weather through tonight. The air mass
continues to dry through tonight, as the aforementioned high
pressure gradually builds in over nrn Michigan. The low level clouds
will start clearing out in eastern upper over the next few hours,
and then down through nrn lower this morning. The higher cloud will
also thin/diminish as well, with the better DPVA from the shortwave
in the central conus pushing east of us. There`s likely going to be
at least some periodic high cloud across nrn lower into tonight, but
as winds go light/calm under high pressure that sits directly
overhead, will have little if any impact on temperature falls. That
said, the potential low temperatures tonight are to sneak into the
lower to middle 30s depending on just how much we mix out into the
increasingly drier air for today. At least the nrn half of the CWA
will have no issue seeing dew points crash into the middle 20s to
lower half of the 30s. Along and south of M-72 there is a touch of
discrepancy in how much the BL mixes out today, which may very well
lead to whether or not temperatures can effectively fall to where
frost can develop, or if there will be some good chance of fog and
slightly less chilly temps. Will go ahead an issue a frost advisory
for areas north of M-72 for now, with the idea that locales south of
there may also need the headline.

Highs today in the low to mid 60s most areas with lake breezes
keeping shorelines cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018

...High pressure taking control...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: High pressure will be over the Great
Lakes through most of the week. It will be in the form of a couple
of different pressure centers, but they will keep the region under
the influence of high pressure into the end of the week. There is a
weak area of low pressure moving through the Ohio Valley early in
the week that continues to waiver into and out of the southern
portion of the CWA.

Primary Forecast Concerns: The first question is with precip chances
Monday afternoon and evening. Consensus blends have low chance PoPs
from around M-55 south. Most guidance is keeping things dry, and I
tend to agree that most of the precip will remain to our south.
There is a good deal of moisture from the Gulf through the Ohio
Valley, so it isn`t completely out of the question that some precip
could work it`s way far enough north. The past 6 runs or so of the
GFS have been slowly drifting north with QPF, but most guidance
stays south with it. PoPs will be left for now, but I wouldn`t be
surprised to see the rain stay south. Blend dewpoints still look on
the high side Monday and will need to be adjusted down.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018

...Warming through the week...

With high pressure overhead, things will remain warm and dry heading
into the weekend. Winds will remain light, but with temperatures
steadily warming to the 80s dewpoints will need to be monitored. The
next chance of rain will come over the weekend. There are still some
differences in the details of when exactly the system will arrive,
but there is good agreement for widespread rain sometime over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 207 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

VFR conditions through the period with just some passing high
clouds. Light winds to continue.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 512 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018

Winds will continue to diminish into daybreak, and especially
through today and tonight, as high pressure settles in overhead.
Have now cancelled the small craft advisory, as all observations
are under criteria. General high pressure and a weak pressure
gradient hold over the Great Lakes well into the upcoming work
week.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Monday for MIZ008-015>019-
     021>024-027>030.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...SMD


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