Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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824
FXUS63 KAPX 261700
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
100 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

High pressure remains centered over Michigan today...providing
mainly sunny skies and no precip attm. A look upstream shows the
approaching cold front to our NW stretching from the Arrowhead of
Minnesota into the Central Plains. Narrow band of moisture along
this front is producing a few showers...with a general downward
trend in areal coverage as it pushes eastward into the strong high
over Michigan. Still appears any increase in precip chances associated
with this front will hold off until after 00Z this evening. Until
then...we will see increasing/lowering/thickening clouds from NW
to SE across our CWA this afternoon and early evening. After a
cold/frosty start to the day...temps will rebound nicely with
afternoon highs ranging from the mid to upper 50s in Eastern Upper
Michigan to the mid 60s near Saginaw Bay.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

...Warming up nicely today, ahead of a cold front tonight...

High impact weather potential: none.

Ridge of high pressure extends from the southern plains, up thru the
western lakes, across eastern upper MI, and on to just south of
James Bay. There is a tiny bit of of cirrus wafting overhead,
otherwise skies are clear. The early morning is a bit chilly,
with temps in the mid 20s to lower 30s. However, no significant
barriers are expected to strong diurnal heating today. 850mb warm
advection is actually already underway on nw flow aloft, and that
will continue as the ridge passes and low-level winds back to the
wsw. Max temps will spike nicely in response, with highs today
from mid 50s to mid 60s. Skies will become partly cloudy with time
today, as cirrus and mid clouds increase.

Tonight, a digging shortwave will slow as it pushes into Lake MI and
eastern Superior. That will drive a cold front fairly quickly across
northern MI in the 1st half of the night, before the front slows and
weak cyclogenesis proceeds over Lake Huron. Lots of pre-frontal dry
to contend with; good model agreement that clouds and some showers
will be primarily post-frontal. Not expecting anything to reach far
western Chip/Mack Cos thru 00z/8pm. However, sct showers will expand
into eastern upper and nw lower MI (nw of a Lake City-Rogers City
line) by 06z/2am. Overnight, sct showers spread into ne lower MI,
while a drying trend takes place in eastern upper and and Lake MI
coast of nw lower. QPF could exceed 0.10" locally, but most places
will see less (and again overall pops will not exceed sct). With
colder air spilling back in behind the front, back edge of the
shower band could turn over to snow (not enough to amount to
anything). Min temps mainly in the low/mid 30s, with some upper
30s near Saginaw Bay.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

...Shower threat ends, but remains cool...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Forecast: Brief upper level ridging across Michigan on
Thursday will quickly be replaced by shortwave troughing as several
perturbations arrive out of Canada Thursday night through Friday.
The initial trough is progged to extend from near James Bay
southwestward through International Falls into the central
plains...becoming draped overhead Thursday night. At the same time,
a secondary wave is expected to be positioned further northwest
across Manitoba/western Ontario...set to reinforce troughing through
the day Friday. A cold front attendant to the initial wave is set to
progress across northern Michigan from NE to SE Thursday night into
early Friday morning, along with a scattered shower threat and a
return to below normal temperatures to wrap up the work week. The
secondary wave may spark a few additional showers, but its biggest
impact will be continuing below normal through at least Saturday.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Diminishing PoPs Friday.

By the start of the period Friday morning, a cold front is expected
to be positioned across the southeastern portion of the forecast
area with scattered showers trailing along and behind the front.
Expectation is that locations west of I-75 and across eastern upper
will likely be precip-free by sunrise Friday with lingering showers
limited to areas east of I-75 before shifting east of the forecast
area entirely by mid-late Friday morning. A lack of long-lived deep
layer moisture/forcing along the front should limit the overall
coverage and intensity of lingering showers with many hard-pressed
to see appreciable rainfall before the shower threat ends.

Aforementioned secondary wave arrives Friday evening, perhaps
accompanied by additional scattered shower activity, this time
primarily across far west/southwestern locales as the bulk of precip
is expected to remain across southeastern WI/southern Lake Michigan.
Any lingering precip chances come to an end by Saturday morning with
increasing sunshine becoming the rule.

Below normal temperatures expected throughout the forecast period
with high temperatures both Friday and Saturday ranging from the mid
40s to near 50 degrees area-wide.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Upper level troughing quickly shifts east of the area on Sunday
becoming replaced by pronounced ridging aloft through the start of
next week. Nearly all guidance suggests an expansive area of high
pressure drifting from the plains into the Great Lakes by Sunday
with dry weather, lots of sunshine, and above normal temperatures
returning to start next week. Next threat for precip holds off until
later Tuesday, and more so Wednesday...perhaps even the first
springtime convection as a tap to Gulf of Mexico moisture opens
ahead of a system moving across the heart of the CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

High pressure overhead this afternoon and evening will give way to
an approaching cold front and associated limited moisture. VFR
cigs will drop to MVFR overnight as chances of showers increase
along and just behind this front as it passes thru Northern
Michigan. Cigs will improve to low VFR Friday morning...but
additional chances of showers will develop Friday afternoon and
night as a stronger system swings thru the region. Sw winds below
10 kts this afternoon/evening will become N/NW tonight into Friday
in the wake of the cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Ongoing light nw winds will back sw-erly today and pick up by
afternoon. However, winds/waves should remain below advisory
criteria. A cold front goes thru tonight, with winds veering nw,
but again staying light enough to preclude any advisories.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MR
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JZ



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