Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KAPX 261930
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
330 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some gusty thunderstorms possible into mid-evening

- Windy into Wednesday and becoming much colder. Rain changes to
  light snow showers.

- Light mix of rain/snow early this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Pattern/Synopsis: 988mb low pressure is over western upper MI,
tracking ne. The warm front has lifter clear of eastern upper
MI, while a wavy cold front is pushing into ne lower WI and sw
lower MI.

Forecast: Showers continue to lift northward into nw lower MI.
The nearest lightning activity is east of MKG, though central
Newaygo Co had a bit an hour ago. The mesoanalysis page from SPC
shows an axis of circa 250j/kg of SbCape, from central IN up to
about TVC. This reflects the richer airmass moving in, with
surface dew points around 50f in nw lower MI, along with some
cooling aloft. Wind fields and shear remain strong, and our
winds will be gusty thru tonight. Convection /could/ bump up
winds to strong/svr levels in isolated spots, via downward
momentum transfer. HRRR runs continue to show some further
organization/consolidation of convection into this evening. Will
be keeping an eye on radar trends into late evening, by which
time stronger convection will exit across Lk Huron.

High pops with fropa after 00Z are confined to ne lower/eastern
upper MI. A wraparound tongue of moisture (now in western WI)
will lift ne-ward with the larger system. That may scrape by nw
lower MI tonight, but will mainly impact eastern upper MI with
likely precip. By very late tonight though, all deeper moisture
will depart, and we will be left with chance for light lake
effect precip in nw lower and eastern upper MI.

Much colder air returns to the area tonight. 850mb temps will
tumble to at or below -10C by Wed morning in the west half of
the area. Precip this evening will remain liquid, but toward and
especially after midnight, leftover precip will turn to snow
from w to e. This isn`t expected to result in more than a thin/
crusty coating of snow anywhere, though some wet roads could
turn icy before than fully dry out.

Min temps mid 20s to lower 30s. Winds gusting to 30-40mph. Wind
chills in the teens at daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Upper low center slowly moves east to northeast across northern Lake
Superior on Wednesday with an associated 60-70kt mid level jet
streak approaching northern MI. Thus, breezy conditions and light
snow showers expected on Wednesday, favoring areas along and west of
I-75. Upper low continues to move off to the northeast Thursday with
just a few lingering snow showers possible across eastern UP.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Cooler temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday with upper
level energy spinning in the vicinity and just to the north of the
area. Thus, the potential will exist for light snow/lake effect snow
showers. Low level (850mb) temps ~-10C and lacking low level
moisture suggest just some lighter snow fluttering about out there,
mainly early on Wednesday. Not really all that impressive nor
impactful.

A modest pressure gradient does remain across the area on Wednesday
with boundary layer winds ~20-25kts. Thus, winds will be breezy with
gusts near 30ish mph. Quite chilly feeling with temps in the 30s as
well. A few lingering snow showers possible across eastern upper
Thursday, with chilly temps remaining. Heights begin to rise on
Friday as temperatures increase into the 40s most locations (close
to 50 degrees Gladwin and vicinity).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Generally zonal flow this weekend with the potential for an embedded
disturbance in the flow aloft and an attendant weak sfc cyclone.
Thus, there is the chance for precipitation early this weekend.
Ensemble guidance suggests light precipitation potential, the
steadiest south of northern Michigan. ENS guidance shows modest
probs (20-50%) for 0.1" (mix of GEFS & EPS), with very little to no
chance for 0.5" or more.

Definitely worth keeping a close eye on the early next week time
frame. Looking at ENS mean MSLP and "ensemble member pressure
centers" suggests a storm will be in the vicinity of Michigan, with
the ENS mean storm track generally southern MI-northern Ohio Valley.
The pattern is quite convoluted with pieces of energy merging/low
pressure intensifying (or not). This is about a week in the future,
so for now we`ll just monitor this development and the latest trends
in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front crosses the region this afternoon/evening, with
veering winds and continued precip chances. A mix of conditions
presently, but mostly MVFR in northern lower, and IFR up at CIU.
Some further improvement will occur this afternoon in northern
lower MI, and CIU will improve to MVFR. However, lower cigs will
work back in later tonight, MVFR for most and perhaps IFR in
spots. Gusty s-sse winds now will veer sw late today.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty s to se winds veer sw late today, behind a strong cold
front. Gales will tend to diminish, except on parts of Lake MI,
where gale-gusts will continue into tonight. Brisk sw winds will
then persist all the way into Wed night.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345.
     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ346>349.
     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341-342.
     Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-344>346.
     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.