Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 191948

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
348 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

...Mostly clear, warming temperatures Friday...

Primary Forecast Concern...None.

Fairly straight forward forecast (as opposed to last weeks) with
high pressure continuing to build in from the west. This should lead
to mostly clear skies. Diminishing winds tonight along with the
remaining snow pack should lead to decent radiational cooling
conditions. Expect lows to range from the upper teens to the middle
20s. Mid levels continue to warm Friday and with decent mixing
expect highs to range from the upper 40s north to the middle 50s
southeast. Northwest winds should be lighter too, in the 5 to 10 mph


.SHORT TERM...(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

...A return to more typical April weather this weekend...

High Impact Weather Potential: Nothing weather-wise...will be
watching rising river level due to snow melt runoff through the

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Large scale pattern across North America
features split flow across the west with disturbances in the
northern and southern branches (southern branch wave over the Great
Basin)...with a more consolidated long wave trough over the eastern
half of North America with the Great Lakes under the west side of
this trough.  Southern branch system looks to stay well south of the
state...while the upper Lakes end up in a weakness in the pattern
between the two flow branches beneath weak anticyclonic flow aloft.
Surface high pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes pretty
much through the weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Minimal this weekend as temperatures are
expected to rebound to something more typical of the third week of
May (which would be highs in the mid 50s).  Fog is a bit of a
concern given ongoing snow melt...and with light winds this weekend.
Guidance is already having trouble with dew points this afternoon
(too high) don`t expect this to be an issue Friday night.  Do
anticipate that dew points will go up Saturday with little change in
air mass...and with good radiational cooling given clear skies/light
winds/snow cover fog potential may be higher Saturday night/Sunday
morning.  Biggest concern deals with snowmelt runoff this weekend
and subsequent rise in rivers.  Rifle River near Sterling is
forecast to continue a slow rise above flood stage at some point
Sunday (a Hydrologic Outlook has already been issued to address this
potential).  So this will need to be monitored heading into next
week (which will be exacerbated by any liquid precipitation).


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal outside of rising river
levels and impact of any additional rainfall to the runoff equation.

Aforementioned southern branch system that is expected to be
crawling across the southeastern U.S. early next week.  Initially
appeared as if this system will remain well south of Michigan...with
a more compact upper low crossing Michigan Wednesday.  But the
trends with this second features has been decidedly south and
weaker...with the possibility of interacting with the lead
southeastern system just enough to induce some deeper moisture along
a deformation axis to lift toward northern Lower later Tuesday/
Wednesday.  So this will be the main threat for precipitation in the
extended periods.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

North northwest winds will slowly decrease this afternoon and
especially tonight then be fairly light Friday as high pressure
builds in from the west. Cigs/vsbys are expected to remain vfr.


Issued at 344 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

North northwest winds will continue to be gusty at times through
early this evening. High pressure building in from the west will
decrease winds later this evening and especially overnight with
lighter winds expected Friday. Small craft advisories will end
later this evening but remain through early Friday morning across
portions of Lake Huron.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 9 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345-346.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 AM EDT Friday for LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341-
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 9 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-322.


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