000
FXUS63 KAPX 180732
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
332 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers move in late this morning and afternoon.

- More widespread rain expected overnight.

- Rain and snow showers possible Friday night into Saturday.

- Quiet weather through the weekend before precip chances return
  Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Pattern Synopsis:

Weakening low pressure currently centered over the northern Great
Lakes will continue to spin northeast of the region today as much
stronger troughing progresses across the Upper Midwest and overhead
by tonight. The associated surface cyclone will slide east across
Ontario today as an attendant cold front works across northern
Michigan this evening into tonight.

Forecast Details:

Light rain will continue across portions of far northern lower near
the Straits and the eastern U.P. over the next few hours before
moving out around sunrise. A lull in rain chances is in store
through the rest of the morning before additional scattered showers
look to move in from southwest to northeast by early afternoon.
Rainfall is anticipated to be light with this round of showers with
accumulations likely being limited to a few hundredths of an inch
for most locations. Otherwise, close to average temperatures are
expected this afternoon as highs warm into the low to mid 50s for
most areas. Places near Saginaw Bay look to get into the upper 50s
today.

Another break in rain chances is expected during the late
afternoon/early evening hours ahead of more widespread rain moving
in this evening and tonight. Highest confidence in steadiest
rainfall lies across the southeastern half of the CWA where totals
of 0.25" to 0.50" are expected for most areas. Lesser amounts are
expected with northwest extent away from Saginaw Bay.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Midlevel large scale troughing currently over Central Canada with
upstream ridging over the Northwest territories and a second trough
over the northern Pacific forms an Omega blocking pattern for the
entirety of the long term period. This pattern supports a cooler air
mass and an overall quiet weather pattern for the Great Lakes region
besides occasional chances of precip from lingering moisture and
embedded height disturbances.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-Rain and snow showers remain possible Friday night into Saturday.
Weather remains quiet for the majority of the long term period until
precipitation chances return next Tuesday: Current embedded
weakening troughing with attached surface low pressure will continue
to progress northeast and make its way to the Maine coastline at the
start of the long term period. Lingering low level moisture will
continue scattered showers as embedded height disturbances progress
across the state Friday night into Saturday. Little to no measurable
precipitation is expected but with cooling overnight temperatures
near freezing level, snowfall will mix into showers for parts of
northern lower and eastern upper. A general dusting of snowfall
accumulations remain possible for interior areas by Saturday morning.

Troughing attached to the aformentioned longwave over central Canada
progresses southward returning precipitation the to the Great Lakes
region around the Tuesday timeframe. Too far out to message details,
but will be motoring this feature with future model runs.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Deep low pressure center will continue to lift NE into Ontario
overnight...then filling as it reaches James Bay on Thursday.
Showers will end overnight as the low center exits our state.
IFR/MVFR conditions will hold on across much of our region...
improving to MVFR/low VFR on Thursday. Chances of showers will
again increase by around midday Thursday thru Thursday night as
Northern Michigan becomes positioned along the northern edge of
deep moisture associated with low pressure moving thru the Mid
Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. Surface winds will
become westerly at 10 to 15 kts late tonight into Thursday...
and will then shift to the south under 10 kts Thursday night.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...MLR