Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 260345
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1145 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and windy late tonight and Tuesday.

- Rain showers develop from west to east tonight into Tuesday.

- Slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and early
  evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024
Deep low pressure remains centered over Iowa late this evening.
Deep moisture continues to surge northward ahead of this system
into much of the Western Great Lakes region...generating
widespread rain showers across much of Wisconsin and Upper
Michigan. Rain showers are currently passing just west of most
of our CWA...but expect this will change as we head into the
overnight hours. Latest near term models still show widespread
rain showers developing from west to east across our CWA
overnight into Tuesday. Have made some minor adjustments to
POPs...but overall flavor of the forecast remains the same.
Expect increasingly rainy but seasonably mild conditions
overnight as WAA continues to strengthen across our CWA.
Overnight lows will range from the mid 30s across Eastern Upper
Michigan to the upper 30s and lower 40s across Northern Lower
Michigan. Low level winds will strengthen overnight in response
to further tightening of the pressure gradient ahead of the low
center. Expect wind speeds will fall just short of Wind Advisory
criteria...thus refrain from issuing any land-based headlines at
this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
Pattern Synopsis:

Upper air analysis shows a broad trough across the central CONUS
with numerous embedded shortwaves rounding the base of the
trough. At the surface, low pressure near Omaha will move into
southern Wisconsin by Tuesday morning. Deep Gulf moisture is
bring drawn up by strong low level flow out ahead of that low.
A weak warm front/dew point discontinuity will push up into and
through northern lower tonight.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Strong winds associated with a low/mid level jet will continue
to pump air into the region. As the surface low moving into
Wisconsin winds up, that increasing pressure gradient will
boost winds across northern Michigan. This will make marine
conditions hazardous (see the marine section below), but also
increase winds and gusts over land late tonight. Current
thinking is that 20-30 mph sustained winds with gusts as high as
40 mph will push across northwest lower late in the overnight,
and then expand to the rest of the area Tuesday morning
(described in the short term discussion below).

That moisture influx will also crank up rain chances tonight.
After an initial wave this evening, rain will become more
widespread in the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts will not
be excessive, but stronger downpours may produce minor impacts.

As can be imagined, all that warm advection will keep
temperatures in the 30s and 40s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Energy aloft advects into Michigan early on Tuesday along with a
stout mid level jet. Wave(s) of precip likely, early in the day,
then later in the afternoon (thundershowers possible). Sub 990mb,
perhaps, low pressure system to the west will result in strong low
level winds across the area due to a tightening pressure gradient.
Thus, breezy to gusty conditions expected as well. Upper level and
sfc low pressure system generally move off to the northeast into
Wednesday, but deep upper low will be in the vicinity, its impact
being the chance for lake effect snow, mainly for eastern UP.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Energy aloft approaches Tuesday morning, along with the nose of a
stout mid level jet and warm, moist advection. Thus, rain, moderate
at times, will overspread the region early on Tuesday. A slight
break in the action is possible towards the middle portions of the
day, before a short wave and sfc boundary/sfc trough rotate through
northern Michigan during the afternoon hours. All guidance shows
more shower development along this boundary, with some CAM guidance
hinting at the potential for thunderstorms due to low end
instability. Cannot rule this out of the equation, especially if the
atmosphere clears and steep low/mid level lapse rates develop. There
will likely be gusty winds with these showers/thundershowers due to
the strong low/mid level wind fields/lapse rates (low level close to
uni-directional winds help as well). All things considered, this is
contingent on the instability present during the afternoon hours,
some global guidance suggest this could be just another band of
showers. No matter the outcome, Tuesday will be breezy, to windy at
times. Another tricky aspect of this forecast, as showers, clouds,
low mixing heights, will fight against strong sfc gust realization.
Model sounding BL winds/heights vary wildly, although thinking 30 to
40 mph wind gusts will be possible.

Cooler temperatures are expected behind this system Wednesday and
Thursday with upper level energy hanging around and to the north of
the area. Thus, lake effect snow is expected, mainly for the eastern
UP due to the more westerly/west south west low level winds and
cooler temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Generally rising heights expected the end of this week and into the
weekend resulting in temperatures in the 40s. Could be an embedded
disturbance within the west to northwest flow aloft with a slight
chance to chance for rain/snow early this weekend. That being said,
ECM/CMC remain quite dry. Extended guidance looks unsettled
thereafter into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Deep low pressure center will lift out of Iowa overnight and
thru NW Wisconsin and Western Upper Michigan on Tuesday...
reaching Southern Ontario Tuesday night. Widespread rain showers
will develop from west to east across our area overnight...and
will continue to impact our area thru Tuesday night. There is a
slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/early
evening...but the chance is too small to include in the TAF for
now. VFR conditions overnight will drop to MVFR on Tuesday as
widespread showers develop. LLWS will continue to impact our
region overnight into Tuesday morning as SE low level winds
continue to strengthen ahead of that system. Surface winds will
also strengthen to 20 to 30 kts with some higher gusts expected
overnight into Tuesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong low level advection and persistent southeast winds will
produce hazardous boating conditions. A gale warning has been
issued for parts of the Lake Michigan side beginning late in the
overnight, where frequent gale force gusts are expected. Over
on the Huron side, stronger impacts are expected to hold off
until Tuesday morning, so the gale watch will be continued for
the nearshore zones north to Presque Isle, with small craft
advisories remaining in effect north of there. For similar
reasons, the gale watch for Whitefish Bay on Lake Superior will
also be continued. At least small craft headlines will be needed
through Tuesday and into Tuesday night.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345.
     Gale Warning from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ346>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ341-342.
     Gale Warning from 5 AM to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ323-344>346.
     Gale Warning from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JHV
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JHV


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