Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 200133

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
933 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018

Issued at 933 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018

Low pressure and residual light rain showers continue to move away
from Lower Michigan late this evening...with plenty of lingering
low level moisture holding over our CWA. Large area of strong high
pressure is centered well to our NW along the US/Central Canadian
border. This feature will slowly build SE into Northern Michigan
overnight...resulting in diminishing cloud cover from north to
south. Little in the way of fog developed this evening despite
moist ground conditions and some diminish in wind speeds.
Increasingly drier low level air overnight should preclude any
significant fog development. Expect a rather cool night across the
Northwoods...with overnight lows ranging from the upper 30s in
Eastern Upper Michigan to the upper 40s near Saginaw Bay.


.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018

...Lingering clouds with some drizzle this evening...

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Widespread rains from earlier continue to
push off to the northeast, with much of the area becoming rain-free
as we head further through the afternoon. Plenty of low overcast
lingers, with more low clouds building in from the west with arrival
of northern stream energy and its attendant cold front. Not a lot of
rain attached to this northern wave as primary deep moisture plume
becomes increasingly detached to the east and strongest dynamics are
displaced across Canada. Some drizzle/very light rain showers noted
to our northwest, and expect something similar to arrive overnight
as that northern energy passes.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud and light drizzle
trends tonight.

Details: Any lingering showers should come to an end quickly later
this afternoon. Clouds will remain, although wouldn`t be surprised
to see a few breaks in the overcast as narrow (and shrinking) dry
layer arrives. Any breaks look brief as next band of moisture
arrives from northwest to southeast as weak northern stream energy
does the same. Moisture profiles remain very shallow, and likely not
deep enough to generate a widespread shower threat. Enhanced upslope
flow will likely bring some drizzle to the interior highlands this
evening, but suspect nothing more than perhaps a brief sprinkle
elsewhere. Aggressive drying arrives from the north overnight,
ending any drizzle threat and scouring out some of the cloud cover
in the process.


.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018

...High Pressure Once Again Dominates...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Forecast: Clouds will continue to diminish throughout the
Sunday morning hours from north to south as high pressure and much
drier air build over the forecast area. Said high pressure will
provide precipitation free weather through at least Monday night.
Models hint at a another weak area of low pressure over the Ohio
River Valley Monday night possibly producing some rain showers over
the southern parts of the forecast area (mainly south of M-55),
although not too confident as surface high pressure will still be
over northern lower with drier air pushing southward and models have
nudged southward with the deeper moisture and synoptic lift with
each run. Have slight chance pops for those portions for now.
Regardless if there are a few light rain showers over the southern
CWA, clouds will diminish throughout the afternoon providing a warm
and mostly sunny day. Temperatures will moderate a bit each day,
with highs in the mid to upper 60s Sunday and warming a bit each day
to the mid to upper 70s by Tuesday (eastern upper will only reach
into the low 70s). Lows will generally be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Winds will remain on the light side through the forecast period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018

High pressure once again builds over the Great Lakes region
producing another quiet, warm, and dry stretch of weather through
the remainder of most of the work week. Rain chances return Friday
and last into the weekend as long range models have consensus on an
area of low pressure meandering over the upper Great Lakes region.
Highs will be in the mid 70s to near 80 (eastern upper only in the
upper 60s to low 70s). Lows will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 725 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018

IFR conditions will linger this evening in the wake of departing
low pressure and the resulting area of rain that impacted our area
today. Conditions will slowly improve as we head into the
overnight hours and especially on Sunday as much drier air advects
into the region. Northerly winds will remain AOB 10 kts thru the
forecast period.


Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018

Passing of a cold front will bring a round of gusty
northwest to north winds tonight, producing small craft advisory
conditions on several nearshore waters. High pressure builds
overhead Sunday into the start of the work week, bringing dry
conditions and lighter winds.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ341-342-
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LSZ321-322.


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