Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 220345
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1145 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 909 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

Low pressure continues to make its way thru the Southern Great
Lakes region late this evening...producing several areas of
convection across the eastern US. Weak broken area of convection
continues to stream thru Lower Michigan...the northern edge of
which has reached the M-32 corridor. The northern edge of deeper
moisture and thus precip should push just a bit further north into
the tip of the Mitt over the next few hours before it begins to
slowly drop SE late tonight into early Tuesday once the surface
low center pushes east of Southern Lower Michigan. No instability
to speak of overhead...so no chance of thunder during the
remainder of the night. PWATs are unimpressive...so only expect
sct/nmrs light rain showers. Overnight lows will cool into the
40s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

...Little bit of rain, fog, and low clouds tonight...

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Convectively enhanced wave (wave itself
is shearing out/weakening) responsible for driving a rather large
area of light to moderate showers into the central Great Lakes this
afternoon. Dry air tied to Lake Superior high pressure doing a
number on the northward advance of this rain, with a noticeable
decrease in organization and intensity on its northern periphery.
Still, saturation has become deep enough to allow rain to reach the
surface in our southwest areas, with high pressure keeping
conditions dry, albeit with quite a bit of high clouds, further
north.

Wave cuts across the region tonight, continuing to de-amplify in the
process. Light showers will follow suite, targeting a good portion
of northern lower Michigan for some light rain amounts.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Addressing that shower
potential, as well as potential for some fog and overnight
temperature trends.

Details: Light showers will continue to advance northeast the
remainder of this afternoon and evening as overall forcing and
deepest moisture axis shear out. Still question just how far north
the rain advances as northern Lakes ridge axis simply refuses to
yield. Simple radar/satellite extrapolation confirms high res-
guidance of drifting some rain potential to at least the M-68
corridor, with the best coverage of rain remaining along and south
of M-72. Rain amounts look to remain light as any deep convective
potential/thunderstorms focus south of our region. Areas north of
the big bridge should stay dry as low level dry air stays steadfast.
More "organized" rains expected to depart overnight, leaving behind
low clouds and potential for a bit of drizzle. Where better rain
occurs, may see a bit of fog develop overnight as low levels become
increasingly "soupy" and with light winds. Don`t think this will get
to out of hand, with only brief restrictions to visibility expected.
Overnight lows range from the mid 40s north, to near 50 degrees
along/south of the M-55 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

...High pressure returns...

High Impact Weather Potential: Elevated fire danger possible.

Pattern Forecast: Clouds and any lingering rain showers will
diminish Tuesday from north to south as high pressure centered
over Hudson Bay along with, accompanied dry air, push in behind a
departing low pressure system. Said high pressure will build over
the Great Lakes and provide precipitation free weather and warm
temperatures Tuesday through Thursday. Highs will be in the upper
60s to near 70 Tuesday and then mid 70s to around 80 Wednesday and
Thursday (low to mid 70s over eastern upper). Of course temperatures
will be cooler along the lake shores once lake breezes form during
the afternoons with daytime heating. Lows will generally be in the
mid to upper 40s. Winds will continue to remain on the light side
through the forecast period as high pressure is overhead and
pressure gradients remain relaxed. Thursday may mix out enough to
reach near critical thresholds for relative humidity. With the lower
humidity levels and temperatures forecast to be near 80 fire danger
could be elevated.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

Rain chances return late Thursday night/early Friday morning and
last through the weekend and possibly into Monday as long range
models have consensus on an area of low pressure meandering over the
upper Great Lakes region. Won`t be a washout weekend, but will be
partly to mostly cloudy with periodic rain showers and possibly some
thunder. Highs will be in the mid 70s to near 80 (eastern upper only
in the upper 60s to low 70s). Lows will be in the upper 40s to upper
50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

Low pressure will thru the Southern Great Lakes overnight...
pushing east of Lower Michigan overnight. Residual light rain
showers will come to an end overnight...but low clouds and MVFR
cigs will continue to spread northward into our area overnight
into Tuesday behind this system. Some patchy MVFR/IFR fog is also
possible...especially around MBL very late tonight. VFR conditions
will return by Tuesday afternoon as low clouds/moisture mix out
thanks to daytime heat as well as drier air advecting into the
region as high pressure builds into the Western Great Lakes.
Light/variable winds tonight will become NE and eventually
northerly AOB 10 kts on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

A weak pressure gradient will hold over the region for the
next several days, resulting in minimal chances for any wind/wave
issues. Weak low pressure does cross srn Lakes Michigan and Huron
into this evening for some potential light rain showers. Otherwise,
next chance of rain arriving mainly Thursday night-Saturday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MR
NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MB



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