Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 140705

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
305 AM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

The synoptic pattern early this morning shows upper level ridging in
the lee of the Rockies, separating two upper troughs, one on the
Pacific coast and the other engulfing much of the eastern conus. At
the sfc, deep low pressure was off the New England coast as well as
in Hudson Bay, the latter having a cold front draped into far nrn
Ontario and central Manitoba. Nrn Michigan was in between these two
features, still within cold northerly low level flow resulting in
lake clouds and lingering flurries in NNW flow regimes. Otherwise,
the atmosphere was quite dry, and outside of the lake clouds and
flurries, skies were clear.

The colder northerly flow will continue into this morning, before a
narrow sfc and mid level ridge works in over the region. This will
allow winds to turn more west then SW through the day with warmer
air advecting into the lake clouds. This will begin the process of
eating away at the low clouds by suppressing shallow overlake
instability, which will allow for increasing sunshine. Later this
afternoon and into this evening however, the aforementioned cold
front from the Hudson Bay low pressure, will press southward through
Ontario. It`s associated shortwave trough and weak forcing will
bring in increase mid and upper level clouds. Outside of maybe a few
flurries in the low clouds this morning, no precipitation is
expected today.

The cold front then presses south and into eastern upper this
evening, and into the overnight hours in nrn lower. Cold advection
becomes sufficient enough to gradually redevelop overlake
instability (marginal) for scattered light snow showers to reappear
in N/NW flow regimes. The instability is not all that deep with
inversion heights around 4kft. The snow showers that develop will be
rather light, with snow accumulations expected to be no more than a
half an inch.

Highs today in the mid and upper 30s for most areas, and lows
tonight mainly in the upper teens and lower half of the 20s.


.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...Light lake effect snow Thursday...

High Impact Weather Potential: Another round of light lake effect
snow Thursday into Thursday night.

Pattern Forecast: Primary feature to note will continue to be well-
advertised upper level closed low over New England with several
pieces of arctic energy pinwheeling around the backside of that
system, digging into northern Michigan Wednesday night into
Thursday. As a result, a reinforcing shot of cold air is expected
across the region with H8 temps falling back into the minus teens C
by Thursday afternoon.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Lake effect snow showers
through Thursday night.

Cold air advection across the region at the start of the forecast
period Thursday morning will continue throughout the day aiding to
drop H8 temps from roughly -11 C to -14 C by the afternoon hours.
Continued north-northwest flow lake effect snow showers will be the
rule with flow ever so slightly expected to back more northwesterly
throughout the afternoon. Primary over-lake instability will
certainly be during the Thursday afternoon time frame, but as the
prior shift mentioned, moisture and synoptic support is less (better
over eastern Lake Huron), so barring a westward adjustment...there
remains minimal synoptic support for precip colocated with the
period of greatest instability.

Will continue with the highest PoPs near the Grand Traverse Bay
region and to a lesser extent across western Chippewa/Mackinac
counties, and towards Alpena/Rogers City. Accumulations are expected
to be light...generally an inch or less during the day Thursday,
especially with an increasing March sun angle, which should limit
accumulation on pavement.

Increasing subsidence/drying aloft Thursday night into Friday is
expected to yield decreasing lake effect chances as time wears on
with partly to mostly sunny skies becoming the rule during the day


.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

A rather quiet extended period is anticipated across the bulk of
northern Michigan as high pressure gradually sags into the region
this weekend and a developing area of low pressure passes by to our
south early next week. High temperatures both days this weekend
expected to climb slightly above normal...varying from the upper 30s
across eastern upper to the low-mid 40s near Saginaw Bay.

Early next week, there certainly looks like potential for a moisture
starved cold front to drop north to south across the region. Despite
little in the way of a QPF signal for any lake effect, the currently
progged temperatures would be cold enough for sufficient over-lake
instability and perhaps some lake induced rain and or/snow showers
to develop during the late Monday through Tuesday timeframe.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1136 PM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Lake induced VFR/MVFR producing strato-cu and flurries continue to
impact parts of northern lower Michigan, and should continue to do
so for a few more hours yet. Warm air advection and increasing dry
low level air should scour out any lake clouds this morning. Fast
moving clipper type system will bring a slowly lowering cloud deck
later today into this evening, perhaps bringing another round of
MVFR cigs toward the end of this taf cycle. Mostly light winds
expected through the duration.




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