Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 191026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
626 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

...Cooler weather returns...

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Elevated fgen response along mid level
confluence axis managed to kick off quite a bit of mid clouds across
the area this past evening. Even plenty of elevated returns on
regional radars, but sub H7 dry wedge (well displayed on local 00z
sounding) prevented any of that activity from even remotely reaching
the surface. Cloud deck has started to thin/retreat to the southwest
as elevated dynamics fade and deep layer drying kicks into full gear
on south side of northern Ontario centered high pressure. Low level
cold air advection gradually strengthening with time as northeast
flow rotates in Canadian air. Despite increasingly favorable low
level lapse rates across northern Lake Huron as H8 temperatures dip
into the negative lower teens, that same dry wedge noted on area
soundings has prevented any shallow lake cloud development yet.

Low pressure along tightening low level thermal gradient looks to
remain well to our south across the Tennessee Valley/lower Ohio
Valley today and tonight, allowing that Ontario high and attendant
dry northeast flow to dominate our weather for the next several

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud/temperature trends and
addressing the possibility for a few lake induced flurries tonight.

Details: Mid level cloud deck should continue to thin from northeast
to southwest this morning. Still cannot rule out some shallow Lake
Huron induced clouds today across northeast lower Michigan (hi-res
ARW and GFS guidance remain most steadfast on this idea). Given no
evidence of any such clouds yet, and continued maintenance of low
level dry air feed, will continue to take a conservative approach on
this idea. Unlike yesterday, more robust cold air advection looks to
strongly mitigate solar insolation, helping keep temperatures
several degrees cooler. With that said, over-performance of
temperatures lately supports trending to the warmer end of the
guidance spectrum, featuring highs ranging from around 30 north of
the big bridge, to readings well into the 30s across the southwest
third of the area.

Same trends tonight as cool and dry northeast winds continue across
the region. However, increasing speed of those winds across northern
Lake Huron may tip the scales to a bit better moisture flux and more
organized lake clouds. Guidance derived soundings bear this out,
especially from Alpena and points south along the Sunrise Side. Top
of "moist" layer extends well colder than the ice nucleation level,
and may be just deep enough to even kick off a few flurries.
Otherwise, a seasonably chilly night across the northwoods, with
widespread readings in the single digits and teens by Tuesday


.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

...A bit chilly for the official start of Spring...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Large scale pattern features a split flow
pattern across North America with an active southern branch starting
with a strong upper low northeast of Hawaii (> 3SD below the
mean)...a short wave trough moving into the central/southern High
Plains early this elongated disturbance from Montana
back off the Washington coast...and a trailing disturbance moving
into California.  Northern branch displaced to the north/northeast
of the Great Lakes.  High Plains short wave trough will track east
into the Ohio Valley by tonight...while trailing California PV
anomaly digs into the Lower Mississippi Valley and becomes the
dominant feature by Tuesday over the southeastern states. This
eventually allows upper flow over the Great Lakes to become rather
stagnant by midweek and any short wave energy over the northern
Plains/upper Midwest gets pulled southward.

Colder northeast boundary layer flow sets up across Michigan for
Tuesday/Wednesday with high pressure over northern Ontario and an
organizing cyclone off the mid Atlantic coast.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Not many...other than some clouds/
flurries off Lake Huron early Tuesday (with the Spring equinox at
1215 pm).  High temperatures Tuesday are looking to fall a little
short of normal... around 30 to the mid 30s expected with eastern
Upper struggling in the 20s much of the afternoon. Much the same
expected for Wednesday though temperatures may be a couple degrees

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Large scale pattern trends toward a more consolidated look for
the last half of the week as amplified troughing (and eventually
an expanding closed low) takes shape off the west coast with
downstream ridging across the Rockies by Thursday...which itself
slowly builds east but flattens with time with the possibility of
Pacific origin short wave energy moving through the region at some
point next weekend (19/00z Canadian run has a very stormy look to
it for Saturday/Saturday night). Consensus forecast dragging some
PoPs into northern Lower starting Friday forecast
trends in the Friday night through Saturday night time range need
to be monitored.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 623 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Mostly VFR conditions expected under just some passing high and
mid level clouds. May see a brief period of lake induced strato-cu
impact KAPN for a few hours this morning. Better chance for more
widespread MVFR producing strato-cu at KAPN later tonight, with
even the chance for a few flurries at times. Northeast winds,
mostly light, expected through the period


Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Northeast winds, at times a bit gusty, will continue across
the big waters for the next several days. Highest wind speeds
expected to occur today through Tuesday when pressure gradient is
the tightest. Combination of winds and waves will result in small
craft advisory conditions on portions of northern Lake Michigan
(today and tonight) and Lake Huron (tonight and Tuesday).




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