Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 260445
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1145 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

GOES-East water vapor imagery showing a mid-level trough moving east
through the Northern Plains into MN. Impressive plume of moisture
streaming into our area which is translating to a very warm/humid
airmass over the region. A few showers and storms were firing from
time to time in a line from north central WI into southeast MN in
this plume and in advance of this trough. Temperatures as of 2 pm
were in the 70s to middle 80s with dew points in the 60s.

Still a chance for a few strong storms later this afternoon into
this evening as the trough continues to push into/through our area.
Wind gusts to 40 mph, heavy downpours, and frequent lightning would
be the main threats along with some small hail. Look for the bulk of
this activity to exit south of the area around midnight. Could still
see a few pop-up showers overnight as a weak secondary mid-level
trough drops through the region. Overnight lows will be in the upper
50s to the middle 60s.

A few showers/storms will be possible over northern WI Saturday as
another weak trough rotates east through that area. Otherwise, look
very warm highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

The heat continues for Sunday into Memorial Day as a mid-level ridge
of high pressure amplifies across the region. 850mb temperatures
Sunday increase to near +20C while 925mb heats up into the +27 to
+30C range. This is expected to produce highs well into the 90s for
most places, nearing or exceeding record levels. See climate section
below. Memorial Day may end up a few degrees cooler as clouds will
be on the increase from convection over the Plains. Could also see a
few showers/storms rounding top of the ridge into our area as well.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase Tuesday into
Wednesday as a mid-level trough nudges in from the Plains. Highs
will continue to be well above normal with readings well into the
80s.

Small-end shower/thunder chances continue Thursday into Friday as a
couple very weak troughs ripple over the mean ridge, Otherwise,
temperatures will continue to stay well above normal with highs in
the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Outside of some lingering light rain at KLSE over the next hour,
expect dry conditions at both TAF sites through at least Saturday
morning. There is a chance for some afternoon/early evening
showers and thunderstorms, but it looks like most activity will
remain north of I-94.

With lower dew point depressions from rainfall this evening, there
could be some patchy fog as skies clear and surface winds become
light. However, winds right off the surface will remain elevated
and this should help limit widespread development. Confidence not
high enough at this time to include in 06Z TAFs.

Winds will be light through the period from the west-southwest,
becoming variable Saturday evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

High temperatures over the next few days will be in near or record
breaking territory. Here are the standing record highs and years
occurred for La Crosse and Rochester:

             Rochester           La Crosse

May 26       91 (1939)           94 (1967)

May 27       93 (1914)           96 (1874)

May 28       95 (2006)           95 (1874)

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...Rogers


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