Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 232123 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
348 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

At 3 PM, a ridge of high pressure provided partly to mostly sunny
skies across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Temperatures were
around 60 along and north of Highway 10 and ranged from the mid
60s to lower 70s elsewhere. These temperatures are the warmest for

On Tuesday afternoon and early evening, A cold front will
move through the area. This front may produce a few showers in
central Wisconsin with its passage. Otherwise, a 5-7K band of
clouds will move through the region during the afternoon and
evening. Temperatures will warm into the 60s ahead of this front.
In the wake of this front, the winds will become north and
increase into the 10 to 20 mph range with wind gusts up to 25 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

On Wednesday and Wednesday night, high pressure will provide
mostly clear skies and light winds across the region. With 925 mb
temperatures ranging from 6 to 9C, high temperatures will warm
into the 50s.

On Thursday afternoon and evening, another Canadian cold front
will move through the region. The GFS continues to be the
strongest with this wave, so it generates the most precipitation
(up to a quarter inch) and the greatest instability (CAPES around
500 J/kg). If this model verified, we may see some isolated to
scattered storms to go along with the showers. Meanwhile, the
Canadian, NAM, and ECMWF have a positively tilted short wave
trough and as a result their synoptic forcing and moisture
transport is much less. This results in just scattered showers.
High temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 60s ahead of
this front.

On Friday afternoon, the models show that a short wave trough will
move southeast through the Great Lakes and northern and eastern
Wisconsin. The ECMWF is the farthest southwest with its wave, so
it produces scattered showers across Wisconsin.  With 925 mb
temperatures ranging from 6 to 12C, high temperatures will range
from the lower 50s to lower 60s.

For the weekend and early next week, the upper level flow will
turn to the southwest. This will initially bring near-normal
temperatures to the area for Saturday and above-normal
temperatures for Sunday and Monday with highs ranging the mid 60s
to mid 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds will remain light
and easterly today before becoming more variable this evening. A cold
front will then begin to slide through on Tuesday morning, bringing
north-northwesterly winds around 5-7 kts through the remainder of the
TAF period. Should the front be a little faster than anticipated,
could see 10-12 kt winds at RST with gusts to 18 kts in addition to
slightly lower, but still VFR (4 to 5 kft agl at the lowest) clouds
at both sites at the very end of this TAF period.


Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Minor flooding is possible along the Mississippi River at Wabasha,
Winona, and La Crosse and for the Yellow River at Necedah. See
the latest hydrological outlooks (ESF) for more information.


Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

It looks like La Crosse will reach 70F for the first
time in 2018. This will be the first time since October 21 2017
(73F). Typically, the first 70F reading in a calendar year occurs
on April 9th. While it is later than average, it is not among the
20 latest dates. The latest date was May 7th in 1961. During 2017,
it occurred on April 8th (77F). During 2016, it occurred on March
8th (72F). Finally, in 2015, it occurred on March 13th (71F). The
last time, we went this late into the year without getting to 70F
or higher was 2013 when it did not occur until April 26th.

Also, today will likely end the below-normal streak at Rochester
MN. This 25-day stretch which began on March 29th had an average
departure of 15 degrees below normal. This was the longest stretch
of below-normal temperatures since a 26-day stretch in 2002
(October 12 to November 6 - average departure of 9.4 degrees below
normal). The longest stretches were 39 days in 1936 (January 15-
February 22 - average departure of 23.6 degrees below normal) and in
1960 (February 17 to March 26 - average departure of 10.5 degrees
below normal).




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