Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 280315
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1015 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures return to the region to close out
   the week.

 - Precipitation chances increase Friday night. Freezing rain is
   possible north of I-94 and could impact travel early Saturday
   morning (20-40% chance).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Warmer End to the Week

Another chilly night is upon us with single-digit wind chills along
and north of I-90 before seasonable air begins to work back into the
Upper Midwest. While temperatures are expected to moderate some on
Thursday, southwesterly flow aids in notable warm air advection by
Friday when high temperatures return to the 50s for most, especially
south of I-94. Upper-level flow becomes more zonal through the
weekend resulting in near-normal temperatures.

Late-Week Precipitation Chances

The next chance for sensible weather arrives Friday evening as a
weakening surface low slides across the southern half of the
forecast area. While models currently bring the most favorable
moisture transport just south of the local area, weaker moisture
advection is anticipated to wrap around the leading edge of the
surface low. The combination of this moisture and synoptic-scale
lift from the low itself is causing confidence to increase for
precipitation (50-70% chance) east of the Mississippi River. Much of
the precipitation is set to fall overnight which could lead to a
wintry mix if surface air and/or road temperatures fall below
freezing. Confidence is increasing for near-freezing air
temperatures north of I-94, but confidence is much lower for how
quickly road temperatures will respond. Freezing rain cannot be
ruled out (20-40% chance), with impacts highly dependent on road
temperatures. We will continue to closely monitor the potential for
freezing rain north of I-94 early Saturday morning.

More Wet Weather Possible Sunday - Tuesday

As zonal flow becomes the dominant synoptic pattern over the
weekend, pockets of vorticity begin to propagate into the Upper
Mississippi Valley ahead of a trough approaching from the west.
Precipitable water values climb to the 90th percentile for this time
of year come Sunday night into Monday, so it won`t be hard to
initiate precipitation with the periodic pulses of positive
vorticity advection. However, confidence for precipitation amounts,
location, and timing is low at this time. Expect refinements to the
forecast for early next week as more model data becomes available.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1014 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

CIGS: some BKN vfr lingering into the late evening, otherwise
expected SKC/SCT conditions into Thu night. Upper/mid level VFR cigs
return Friday afternoon ahead of the next weather system with
MVFR/IFR looking likely by the overnight hours.

WX/vsby: threat for light pcpn Friday night (40-60%, trending toward
rain). Related vsby impacts look minimal at this time.

WIND: westerly winds tonight/Thu 10 kts or less...then becoming
light easterly Thu night.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KAA
AVIATION...Rieck


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