647
FXUS63 KBIS 141851
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
151 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
  through the week.

- Near average temperatures are expected this week, with highs
  in the mid 60s to mid 70s and lows in the 40s. Friday may be a
  bit warmer with highs in the 70s to low 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A parade of shortwaves continue through the next week.
Presently, most showers have moved out of the forecast area
other than the southern James River Valley of ND. However, as
the next shortwave approaches today/tonight, additional showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop. The best development
looks like it will primarily be in the south central, including
the James River Valley, as well as along and east of Hwy 83. At
this point in time, any severe thunderstorms are highly unlikely
and the potential for strong storms continues to decrease as
well. This is due to progged MUCAPE trending lower with a
narrow ribbon of no more than 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE and very
little shear (most locations 15 kts or less of 0 to 6 km bulk
shear). Any thunderstorm potential will decrease through the
night.

Wednesday will likely be mostly dry during the day, although
there could be some lingering precipitation, decreasing from
west to east, mainly in the eastern half of the state. Another
weak shortwave will then slide through the area Wednesday night
through Thursday. Associated showers and thunderstorms with this
wave seem unlikely to be terribly widespread with chances for a
wetting rain generally at 20 percent or less.

A more organized low pressure system then looks to pass through
southern Canada sometime Friday through Friday night. The
Friday through Friday night system seems to be the most
interesting for the period. There may be a window where decent
instability is co-located with relatively strong shear. That
said, current indications are that the forcing lags behind the
shear and instability. Still, if there winds up being an area
of overlap with some decent forcing, a few strong to severe
storms are not entirely out of the question. The picture will
become much clearer over the next couple of days as the system
comes within reach of the CAMs. The forecast becomes more
uncertain after that, but the potential for daily showers and
thunderstorms continues through the remainder of the period.

Temperatures through the period look seasonable with highs
mostly in the 60s to low 70s, although Friday may see some highs
in the low 80s. The current forecast keeps lows mostly in the
40s through the period. Low ensemble spreads suggest these
forecast lows are unlikely to change much and thus the threat
for frost remains low as of now.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

VFR ceilings and visibility are present for western through
central North Dakota. A few returns are present in the James
River Valley, which may result in some light showers early this
afternoon, although conditions should remain VFR otherwise.
Additional showers, along with perhaps a few thunderstorms, are
expected to develop in the south central, as well as areas
along and east of Highway 83. Showers should become more
organized later tonight mainly in the south central, including
the James River Valley. In regard to TAF terminals, showers in
the vicinity of KBIS are a little more uncertain compared to
KJMS as they may develop too far east. Beyond shower and
thunderstorm chances, MVFR/IFR ceilings are generally expected
to impact all terminals sometime tonight into Wednesday morning.
KXWA may maintain a scattered rather than broken cloud deck,
however.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken