Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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546 FXUS64 KBMX 100815 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 315 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 315 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2024 Current MCS now moving in across the southern half of the area. The strongest storms will be generally along and east of I-65 and south of I-85 through 5 or 6 AM. Showers and storms will linger through the morning and then move out of the area for the afternoon. With the clouds and rain leaving by the afternoon, we may still warm up to the upper 70s to low 80s. A dry night and cooler temperatures will be in place tonight with generally 50s across the area. A few northern areas will be in the upper 40s. On Saturday, mostly sunny skies will be in place as high pressure builds into the area. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 315 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2024 We will start the long term out with dry weather on Sunday as high pressure remains over the area, albeit moving to east through the day. As it moves east a warm front will lift northward through Monday morning. Over-running showers will develop and begin to slide into the area by Monday morning. Rain chances will continue to increase through Tuesday as the warm front slowly advances through the Southeast. Look for several periods of rain from Monday through Tuesday night. It will not rain the whole time, but the chances will remain fairly high through this 48 hour window. On Wednesday, the surface low associated with the warm front moving through the will slide east of the area. The associated cold front will washout, keeping the area in a fairly moist environment. So rain chances will remain through Wednesday night, although generally we will only see isolated to scattered activity. On Thursday, we will see another cold front slide toward area, although it should remain to our west. A shortwave will ride along it though and increase rain chances for Thursday. Temperatures look to be seasonable for the extended period. 16 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 105 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2024 Showers and storms will move through the area through sunrise. Tried to time out things the best possible. Most of the convection will be east of the area by 14 to 15z, with skies clearing through 18z. Winds will be strong this afternoon. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Showers and thunderstorms will be ending later this morning with dry conditions by late afternoon and tonight. Much drier air will be in place tonight through the weekend. Min RH values today will be 40-50 percent. 20 foot winds this afternoon will be 7 to 9 mph. Max RH values overnight will be in the 90 to 100 percent range and we will need to monitor for isolated areas of fog. Appears though that the winds should remain 4 to 6 mph and keep the fog from developing. Min RH values on Saturday will be in the 30s with 20 foot winds of 4 to 6 mph. Wetting rains return Monday night into Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 80 50 78 53 / 20 0 0 0 Anniston 80 51 78 55 / 30 0 0 0 Birmingham 81 54 79 58 / 20 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 83 55 80 58 / 20 0 0 0 Calera 82 55 78 58 / 30 0 0 0 Auburn 81 56 78 58 / 50 0 0 0 Montgomery 84 56 80 58 / 50 0 0 0 Troy 83 56 79 58 / 70 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...16