000
FXUS64 KBMX 250548
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1248 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 946 PM CDT WED APR 24 2024

A cold front was slowly moving southward across the area this
evening. There were a few showers out ahead of the front and they
have mostly dissipated. Do not expect any additional development
overnight. The main concern overnight will be the potential of fog
development. It appears there will be a zone between Birmingham
and Montgomery where some fog may develop. Drier air is working
into the area from the north and skies have decreased in cloud
cover since sunset in many spots. The interface of the cooler low
temperatures and slightly higher moisture may be enough for some
development before sunrise. Mentioned patchy fog at this time and
will monitor visibilities for anything lower. Partly to mostly
cloudy and warm on Thursday with highs 75 to 85.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT WED APR 24 2024

A weak surface front has entered into northwest Alabama as we
approach midday. Broken mid-level clouds between 7,000 and 10,000
feet associated with the front are currently present generally
along and north of the I-85 corridor. The presence of the clouds
are expected to temper the diurnal curve just a bit and lead to
high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, while full sunshine
will send highs into the lower 80s for locations such as Troy and
Eufaula this afternoon. In terms of the rain chances today, it
appears that the high-res guidance from yesterday was a little too
bullish in terms of the rain chances. The 12z KBMX sounding still
contains an ample amount of dry air across the profile, which will
continue to be a limiting factor in terms of convective
development. I`ve continued the slight chance of showers and
perhaps a storm across western counties in Central Alabama through
the peak heating of the day as the surface front moves southward
near the U.S. 80/I-85 corridor. Overnight tonight, mid-level
clouds are expected to gradually clear in most locations. With the
stalled surface boundary still in the vicinity, we could be
looking at the chance for fog development as low-level moisture
pools near and just south of the front. Patchy fog has been added
to the forecast overnight for eastern and southeastern locations
and nearby major lakes and stream basins. Temperatures will be
allowed to drop into the upper 40s for northern counties north of
the front, while upper 50s are expected in the far south.

Upper level heights will begin to rise during the day on Thursday
as a 500mb ridge develops over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. A
shortwave trough embedded within northwesterly flow aloft will
move through the region, along with the surface front lifting
northward as a warm front. At least isolated showers and storms
will be possible during the peak heating of the day with warm
temperatures expected in the low to mid 80s.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT WED APR 24 2024

Continued the thinking of the previous forecast regarding potential
for some coverage of showers/storms Thursday night mainly north of I-
20. Went above consensus for PoPs in that timeframe. Otherwise,
highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s will stay in
place for several days. The thinking for Monday night remains
largely the same with rain and possible thunderstorms chances mainly
north of I-59/20.

12

Previous long-term discussion:
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT WED APR 24 2024

An upper-level trough moving into the Southern Plains will induce
southerly low-level flow as far east as Alabama on Thursday
evening. A warm front extending from Northeast Oklahoma to West
Alabama will accelerate northward with the onset of southerly
flow. Beneath west- northwest 500 mb flow of 30-35 kts, increasing
moisture and warm advection may trigger isolated or scattered
showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening mainly north of I-20.
Any such activity will shift to the northeast and out of our
forecast area during the overnight hours.

Two shortwave ejections will occur across the Plains and Midwest
in the Friday through Sunday period while a ridge remains in
control over the Southeast CONUS. Eventually the second trough in
the Plains should progress eastward on Monday and Tuesday leading
to increasing rain chances mainly north of I-59.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT THU APR 25 2024

A weak front is slowly moving southward tonight, and currently
stretches from near Anniston to Tuscaloosa. Patchy fog is
possible south of the front, where moisture is slightly higher.
Reduced vis to MVFR/IFR is possible for a few hours, with MGM
being the most likely terminal to be impacted.

Any fog lifts with sunrise, with winds remaining at or less than
5kt through the day. Isolated convection is possible Thursday
afternoon, but chances at any terminal are too low to include at
this time.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A weak front with just a few showers/storms moves through this
evening. 20 ft winds will be westerly at 6 to 8 mph, with minimum RH
values above 40 percent. Another chance of showers/storms exists
Thursday afternoon, with an increase in coverage compared to
Wednesday. 20 ft winds on Thursday will become easterly at 6 to 8
mph, with minimum RH values 30 to 35 in the northeast, and 35-45
percent, elsewhere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     79  56  83  62 /  10  20  10   0
Anniston    80  58  82  62 /  10  20  10   0
Birmingham  81  61  83  63 /  20  20  10   0
Tuscaloosa  81  61  84  63 /  20  10   0   0
Calera      80  61  82  62 /  20  20  10   0
Auburn      80  62  82  63 /  20  10  10   0
Montgomery  84  61  85  63 /  20  10   0   0
Troy        83  60  85  63 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...14