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000
FXUS61 KBUF 161827
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
227 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will shift east tonight. Showers and
some thunderstorms will return Wednesday into Thursday as a broad
area of weakening low pressure passes by to our northwest sending a
warm front through the region Wednesday, followed by a cold front
Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface ridge axis across the region this afternoon will slowly
shift east into western New England tonight, while a highly
amplified upper level ridge nudges over the lower Great Lakes.
These features will maintain dry weather for most if not all of
the night tonight with a gradual increase in clouds overnight.
The exception may be across far southwest New York toward
Wednesday morning as the leading edge of a band of showers
associated with a warm front extending well east of an area of
low pressure moving east across the upper Mississippi Valley
approaches from the west. Lows will range from the lower to mid
30s across the North Country to the lower and mid 40s across far
western New York.

Shower chances ramp up Wednesday starting in the morning across
western New York, reaching the Finger Lakes by afternoon as a
distinct surge of moisture and ascent in advance of a warm front
works into the area during this time frame. Some embedded
thunder or at least a rumble or two is possible during the
morning as elevated portion of the activity works through. There
will be a better chance for thunderstorms during the later part
of the afternoon, especially across western New York as a
pocket of modest instability develops with the emerging warm
sector.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A mid-level ridge axis will move across the eastern Great Lakes
region Wednesday. Surface high pressure will weaken across the
region as surface low pressure moves into the Upper Great Lakes
region. The nose of a 35kt low level jet will arrive in western NY
Wednesday morning and increasing moisture ahead of a surface warm
front will support strengthening rain showers across western NY.
Showers will move east, however strong subsidence across northern
New England will slow forward progression and keep areas east of
Lake Ontario mainly dry through Wednesday afternoon. The warm sector
will move into far western NY by afternoon and this will introduce
the slight chance for thunderstorms into Wednesday evening. The
better chance for thunderstorms will be ahead of an advancing cold
front across central and eastern Ohio during peak heating time,
however it is possible some rumbles of thunder move into far western
NY into the evening hours. An area of rain showers ahead of an
advancing warm front will move east into the eastern Lake Ontario
region Wednesday night. Surface high pressure over northern New
England will continue to weaken and slow forward progression of
showers. In fact, little to no rain is possible across the North
Country through Wednesday night. The cold front will move into the
region overnight with drier air filtering in from the west. Rainfall
amounts will range from about a half inch across far western NY to a
quarter inch or less east of Lake Ontario Wednesday through
Wednesday night. There is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall
across western NY during this time. The risk for any flooding is
limited as convection is forecast to diminish as it moves into
western NY.

The cold front and warm front will slow down and become occluded
Thursday. Drier air will move into western NY where breaks of sun
are possible Thursday. Coverage of showers will diminish through
Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A large trough will move into the Great Lakes region and bring
another round of unsettled weather and notably, cooler air for the
weekend. Initially, surface low pressure will move into Hudson Bay
Friday through Friday night. An associated cold front will approach
the region and rain showers will likely spread from west to east
across the forecast area Friday. Mostly dry conditions are likely
Friday night before the upper level trough moves overhead Saturday.
Daytime heating with cool air aloft will increase chances for
diurnal rain showers Saturday into Saturday evening. Activity will
likely diminish overnight before an upper level trough axis swings
through the region Sunday. This may produce additional rain showers
however probability is low at this time. Cold air advection through
the weekend will keep temperatures below normal. A large area of
high pressure will build across the Great Lakes region late in the
weekend into Monday resulting in mostly dry conditions across the
eastern Great Lakes region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions and mainly light winds will be the rule
through 12z Wednesday as high pressure slowly shifts into New
England. Mid and upper level cloud will start to thicken and
lower across western New York late tonight ahead of warm front
set to move into western New York on Wednesday. Low VFR CIGS and
a few scattered rain showers may reach KJHW toward 12z Wednesday.

Flight conditions should deteriorate Wednesday, especially across
western NY, where MVFR CIGS and some rain showers will be possible.
An embedded thunderstorm is possible, but confidence low on the
extent of western New York airfields impacts.

Outlook...

Wednesday night and Thursday...MVFR/VFR with showers likely.
Friday and Saturday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of showers.
Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the lower Great Lakes will slide east tonight.
Winds will turn easterly and increase later tonight and Wednesday
with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible on Lake Ontario,
especially on the western end ahead of an approaching warm front.
Winds turn more southerly on both Lakes behind the warm front by
Thursday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/TMA
NEAR TERM...JM/TMA
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...JM/TMA
MARINE...JM/TMA