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000
FXUS62 KCAE 130622
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
222 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Winds begin to weaken some today, but it will still be breezy
through the afternoon. Warmer weather and dry conditions move in
for the weekend and early next week as high pressure and upper
ridging move over head.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today and Tonight: Region will be in a dry northwesterly flow
regime behind an exiting upper trough axis today. Surface
pressure gradient will finally begin to relax through the day,
but not enough to eliminate wind gusts. Westerly surface winds
of 10-15 mph will remain through the day. Low-level inversion
will break by 9 am allowing for a good amount of mixing and a
dry adiabatic temperature profile through 5 kft. This will bring
some stronger winds to the surface through the afternoon hours.
Good news is that the strength of the winds in the mixed layer
will be weaker today, and should continue to weaken into
tonight. Highest wind gusts may occur as the morning inversion
breaks, with wind gusts expected to only be up to 20-25 mph. Do
not expect any need for advisories today. Winds decouple quicker
tonight as inversion sets back up and pressure gradient weakens
more. As for temperatures, with the northwesterly winds aloft,
there should be some warming due to downsloping, which should be
able to help bring afternoon temperatures into the middle 70s
for most areas. For lows, with better radiational cooling
tonight, readings drop back down into the upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Modest increase in moisture through the day with precipitable
water to 1 inch. Fast west-northwest flow aloft and a short wave
moves through in the evening with mid level clouds expected.
With warm advection in the afternoon as surface ridge to the
south pushes east, temperatures above normal in the low to mid
80s. Strong mixing Sunday night should keep temps up a bit. lows
around 60 expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Increase in low level moisture Monday. GFS Model soundings show
steep low to mid level lapse rates and elevated instability but
air mass appears capped with strong subsidence as upper ridge
over the Mississippi Valley builds east into the region. A
frontal boundary is well north of the region east- west across
the Mid Atlantic and surface trough extends south across the
western Carolinas. So dry forecast with some clouds and warmer
temps, above normal in the mid to upper 80s.

Ensembles and deterministic indicate upper ridge axis over the
area Tuesday, then shifting east upper low moves into the
northern Plains and southwest flow aloft develops. So increase
in mid level moisture into Midweek. Ensembles show an
anomalously deep low over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley with
zonal flow over the area. This trough may push a cold front into
the area late Thursday into Friday. So slight chance of
showers/thunderstorms late in the week. NBM temperatures remain
above normal even behind the frontal passage

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR the 24 hr forecast period.

Dry airmass with westerly winds over the next 24 hours. With
limited moisture, skies will be mostly clear. Fog is not
expected. Winds will still be the main issue again today.
Sustained winds this morning between 5-10 knots, then as the
inversion breaks towards 14-15z, winds increase to between 10-15
knots, with gusts up to 20 knots mixing down to the surface
through a good portion of the early afternoon. As the pressure
gradient weakens later this afternoon winds will begin to
weaken, then drop to around 5 knots by sunset as an inversion
sets up overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$