000
FXUS62 KCAE 250654
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
254 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will build in today while a front stalls to
our south. The front will push back towards the north some
Friday, and lead to a slight chance of afternoon showers, mainly
western areas. Fair Saturday through Monday with a warming
trend. A cold front is expected to bring a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Front has moved east of the area with remaining clouds exiting
the eastern Midlands over the next hour or two. Patchy fog has
developed in the northern Midlands and Pee Dee where the best
rain fell last evening and expect the fog to remain patchy
through daybreak and mainly in areas that received rain.
Otherwise the forecast area will see mostly clear skies which
combined with light and variable winds will allow for good
radiational cooling. Overnight lows will range from the low 50s
in the west to mid 50s in the east.

Upper level trough will slide offshore this morning as the
remains of the front move further south of the area. This will
allow weak high pressure and some upper level height rises to
build into the area today with the frontal remains moving back
toward the area tonight. As the high pressure builds into the
area winds will become northeasterly this morning then turn more
easterly tonight allowing for moisture advection to begin.
Moisture advection will increase tonight as as 850 mb flow
becomes southerly. Although moisture will be increasing do not
expect any showers just low clouds developing and some mid and
upper clouds associated with the remains of the frontal
boundary. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper
70s to low 80s with lows tonight in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure axis to extend into our region Friday,
with the old front set up just to our south and west. GFS/EC
ensemble means and SREF remain consistent in indicating some
increasing moisture and possibility of either some weak
isentropic lift and/or enough low level moisture convergence
near the stalled front which could promote some shallow light
showers developing in the afternoon, mainly over western areas,
aided by diurnal heating and an upper impulse. An upper ridge
axis will shift east over the region by Saturday, with surface
high pressure in place. Fair weather expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper ridge and surface high pressure to generally remain over
our region Sunday and Monday. Fair with a warming trend. Upper
ridge expected to shift offshore early next week, with
appearance of a cold front and associated precip chance coming
in late Tuesday into Wednesday. NBM indicating slight chance
POPs.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Weak front has moved east of the terminals with remaining low
clouds exiting OGB by 07z. Weak high pressure and mostly clear
skies will be over the area today with light northeasterly winds
this morning and afternoon veering to more easterly late in the
period. This will again begin pushing moisture into the area
and result in development of some low clouds around 6 kft from
the afternoon through the end of the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$