Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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257 FXUS62 KCHS 032320 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 720 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Atlantic high pressure will remain across the Southeast U.S. through much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Early this evening: Radar imagery shows that the sea breeze has just about cleared the forecast area and only weak convection has developed along the periphery of the forecast area over the last few hours. Through the overnight, the upper ridge axis will slip offshore and begin to get replaced by broad troughing. Model guidance favors far interior southeast Georgia for overnight convection, mainly Tattnall, Evans, Candler, Bulloch, Screven, and Jenkins counties. This make sense as this area will feel the trough aloft a bit more, and deeper moisture (~1.5" precipitable water values) will be present there. We don`t anticipate the coverage will be too high, mainly in the isolated to scattered range. Conditions will not be nearly as conducive for fog development tonight, though some patchy fog will be possible across the inland tier. Lows will be mild, with mid to upper 60s across the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Ridging aloft will be in place just off the southeastern coastline, while across the southeastern states a series of shortwave troughs ripple through. At the surface high pressure will extend into the region from the east. Between the shortwave energy aloft and the afternoon sea breeze isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon. While a strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, the overall severe threat will be low. Shear values are not impressive and there appears to be model disagreements on how much instability will be in place. High temperatures will follow a slight warming trend through the weekend and into early next week. upper 70s to low 80s are forecast Saturday, with mid to upper 80s by Monday. Overnight low temperatures will remain quite mild and well above normal, generally in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The highlight of the long term period will be the heat, as high pressure builds at the surface and ridging builds aloft. A lack of any forcing aloft will limit any shower/thunderstorm activity. Temperatures are expected to rise into the low to mid 90s by Thursday. While heat indices will likely remain below advisory levels, temperatures could approach record levels on Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 00z Sunday. There are no significant fog or stratus concerns at the terminals overnight, though some guidance would suggest that low ceilings could spread into KCHS right around sunrise. Given the amount of mid and high level clouds around tonight, we don`t think this low stratus is too likely, so we have only carried a few clouds at around 500 ft. Saturday shower and thunderstorm activity should mostly stay to the west of the terminals. Extended Aviation Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Monday. && .MARINE... Tonight: There are no concerns for tonight. Southeast winds will average 5-10 kt with seas 1-2 ft. Saturday through Wednesday: High pressure will prevail across the local marine waters through the period, yielding rather benign conditions. Southerly winds in the morning will back out of the southeast during the afternoon and evening hours nearly each day as the sea breeze develops. Winds will average 10-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BSH SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...BSH MARINE...