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000
FNUS71 KCTP 221214
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for Hominy Ridge Rx Fire...Landwoner
National Weather Service State College PA
814 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 22.

If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast, contact the National Weather Service
in State College.


.DISCUSSION...
Mostly sunny and warmer with low humidity. MinRH is forecast to
drop between 15-30% this afternoon with occasional wind gusts from
the northwest 15-20 mph. Deep mixing heights 6-8kft and very dry
air above weak inversion are strong signals for undercutting model
forecast dewpoints/minRH.

Breezy and seasonably mild Tuesday with increasing clouds. Wind
gusts from the south southwest between 20-30 mph with 25-35%
minRH. Light rain will move into northwest PA Tuesday afternoon
and gradually shift to the south/east Tuesday night into Wednesday.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 61.
Min Humidity........19 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing Height.......7600 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 14 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................56 to 61.

TIME (EDT)          9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  5   5   4   4   4   3   3   3   3
Weather Cov.......
Weather Type......
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  44  47  51  54  56  58  59  60  61
RH................  51  43  37  30  25  21  20  19  19
20 FT Wind Dir....  W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT Wind Spd....  5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT Wind Gust...  10  10  12  12  12  12  12  11  10
Mix Hgt (kft).....  1.7 3.2 4.9 6.1 6.7 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.6
Transp Wind Dir...  W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp Wind Spd...  14  14  18  18  17  17  17  15  14
LVORI.............  2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI...............  56  56  56  61  61  61  61  61  61
Haines Index......  5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6

.TONIGHT...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Areas of frost
                    early in the morning.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min Temperature.....Around 36.
Max Humidity........72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light.
Mixing Height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 13 mph shifting to the south 3
                    to 5 mph overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................2 to 6.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%)...........  3      3      8      12     17     26
Weather Cov.......
Weather Type......  NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp..............  59     52     47     43     41     37
RH................  21     32     43     53     57     67
20 ft wind........  NW 5   W 3    W 1    W 1    N 0    N 0
20 FT Wind Gust...  7             2             1
Mix Hgt (ft)....  7100   600    400    400    400    400
Transport wind....  NW 13  NW 6   W 5    SW 5   S 3    S 5
LVORI.............  2      2      2      2      3      3
ADI...............  6      6      3      2      2      2
Haines Index......  6      5      5      5      4      4

.TUESDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Areas of frost
                    early in the morning.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 67.
Min Humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 6 to 10 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing Height.......5900 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....South 5 to 9 mph increasing to southwest 15 to
                    21 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................4 early in the morning increasing to 68 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  36  41  46  47  49  50  52  53  55  58  62  65
Weather Cov.......  ARS
Weather Type......  FST
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  37  38  42  46  52  58  60  62  65  65  66  66
RH................  72  70  65  60  48  39  35  32  28  29  29  30
20 FT Wind Dir....  N   N   N   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT Wind Spd....  0   0   0   3   6   6   8   9   9   9   10  9
20 FT Wind Gust...  1   1   1   4   7   11  13  14  14  16  16  16
Mix Hgt (kft).....  0.4 0.4 0.5 1.2 2.9 4.7 5.4 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.4 5.1
Transp Wind Dir...  S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  S   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp Wind Spd...  5   5   6   9   15  18  20  21  21  21  21  21
LVORI.............  3   3   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI...............  4   4   4   55  55  55  68  68  68  67  67  67
Haines Index......  4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

$$
Forecaster...Lambert
Requested by...Benjamin Jones
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411703.0/CTP
.DELDT 04/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL benj@ruffedgrousesociety.org