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000
FXUS63 KDDC 160510
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1210 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...Updated Short Term/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms early Tuesday.

- Intense northwest winds Tuesday, with areas of blowing dust.

- Two cold fronts are expected, one on Thursday and another on
  Saturday, bringing much cooler air.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Strong, and intensifying, 552 dm midlevel cyclone was spinning
over eastern Colorado at midnight. Forcing for ascent ahead of
this was just entering western Kansas as of midnight, per KDDC
radar data and satellite imagery. The delay in the timing of
this forcing, relative to the diurnal heating cycle, prevented
higher end severe weather from developing this evening. That
stated, mainly linear convection will continue to be forced for
the next several hours, as the Pacific cold front overtakes the
impressively sharp dryline. At midnight, Elkhart reported a
dewpoint of 13, with an impressive 69 dewpoint as far west as
Liberal. Instability is available to be released overnight as
boundary collisions finally force parcels through the stubborn
EML capping inversion. Cold advection at 500 mb will continue
overnight, down to < -20C, which will also keep convection
active for the next several hours. Large hail and damaging winds
remain possible.

Intense cyclone is forecast to be at 548 dm near Wakeeney at
7 am Tuesday, forcing the dry slot and elevated west winds over
SW KS. Sunshine will prevail Tuesday in the subsident
environment behind the departing cyclone. This sunshine will
also facilitate strong mixing after 10 am, after which time
intense northwest winds are expected. The inherited high wind
warning looks well placed, with gusts to near 60 mph favoring
the higher terrain of the northwest zones through the afternoon,
including Syracuse, Scott City, and Garden City. The strongest
winds are expected at midday, roughly noon-2pm, before gradients
begin to gradually weaken. Areas of blowing dust will be
common, and travel will be difficult, for much of daylight
Tuesday. 12z GFS shows a net cooling of about -10C at 850 mb
versus Monday, but April sunshine and NWly downslope
contributions will mask alot of this cooling. Afternoon
temperatures in the 70s are expected, with lower 80s southeast
of DDC.

Zonal flow reestablishes Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
for a quiet night with lows in the 40s.

Sunny and unseasonably warm Wednesday, with 850 mb temperatures
quickly rebounding under zonal flow aloft, and south winds
return. Afternoon temperatures in the lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Ensemble members of the EC/GFS show essentially a dry forecast
through at least the weekend, and even those member means on the
weekend are sparse in number and light in qpf (only a few
hundredths of rain).

Wednesday night will bring a cold front that will limit the
rest of the week and weekend largely to highs in the 50s, with
lows in the 30s in the latter half of the week.

The week 2 outlook has high confidence (60-70%) in temperatures
leaning above average for late April, while to a lesser degree
(about 35 %) confidence in leaning above average rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Thunderstorms are expected to be at least in the vicinity of the
airports through about 09z Tue as a cold front overtakes the
dryline and forces convection for the next several hours. The
highest confidence of impacts is at HYS, where a convective
TEMPO group was included for 06-09z. Strong subsidence and much
drier air will bring VFR/SKC by 12z Tue, with elevated west
winds. After 15z Tue, intense W/NW winds are expected at all
airports, with gusts of 40-45 kts. The strongest wind gusts are
expected at GCK, up to near 50 kts, where blowing dust will
limit visibility at times. NW winds will rapidly diminish around
00z Wed.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 7
PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ043-044-061>063-074-084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Tatro
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Turner