Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 180002
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
702 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Showers and a few thunderstorms were occurring near the elevated
warm front moving through northeast Minnesota this afternoon.
Rainfall amounts have been fairly light and generally less than
one tenth of an inch. Elsewhere, high pressure remained in charge
with a partly to mostly sunny sky. The thunderstorms will
percolate until near sunset before ending with the loss of
daytime heating. Showers will persist through the night, mainly
north of U.S. Highway 2, in response to an upper level short wave
trof moving through northwest Minnesota. Upper level/surface
ridging remains over the rest of the region tonight.

The ridging remains over the eastern edge of northeast Minnesota
and northwest Wisconsin Friday, and the western portion of the
forecast area in the morning. By Friday afternoon, showers will
begin to impinge on the western third of the region as an upper
level short wave trof moves into northwest Minnesota. A low level
jet brings ample moisture into the area and leads to beneficial
rains as these features interact.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

The first half of the weekend will see much needed rainfall across
the Northland tapering off Saturday afternoon across northwest
Wisconsin. The second half and into the early portion of the normal
work week will see drier conditions again take hold across the
Northland.

Friday night into Saturday will see an area of light rain showers
and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms. Higher rainfall totals
are expected across northeast Minnesota with totals up to half an
inch to less across northwest Wisconsin. Highs in the 60s in
northern Minnesota behind the cold front, otherwise in the upper
60s to low 70s throughout the long term period as a broad area of
high pressure builds across the Upper Great Lakes. Lows generally
in the 40s to low 50s with the exception of Saturday night where
much of the region will be in the mid to upper 30s for lows.

On the synoptic scale, a broad mid-level longwave trough with an
embedded shortwave trough will track to the east across southern
Manitoba and Ontario into the Northland Coupled with strong warm air
advection across the Upper Midwest, the mid-level PVA combined will
lead to broad-scale lift across much of the Upper Midwest Friday
night into Saturday. A cold front will track from west to east
across the region, with precipitation expected to develop along and
ahead of the front. Low level moisture will be limited initially,
which will result in a slow onset of precipitation on Friday.

With a region of high pressure building into the Northland late this
weekend, relative humidity values will again fall to around 20 to 30
percent each day, but limited winds should preclude a fire weather
threat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 702 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

A stationary boundary over southern Minnesota will return north as
a warm front tonight into Friday. Showers will be possible
tonight, mainly over far northern portions of Minnesota. Some
brief MVFR conditions will be possible under persistent showers.
Most other areas will be VFR through the period. More showers will
be possible Friday morning then most areas should be dry during
the afternoon. Gusty winds will continue around Lake Superior but
lessen some overnight. Gusty southerly winds will develop for most
areas inland from Lake Superior on Friday as the front moves
through.

Low level wind shear will develop this evening for portions of the
Northland then diminish late tonight into Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  67  50  58 /  10   0  30  50
INL  42  78  41  60 /  90  50  70  20
BRD  49  80  52  59 /  20   0  60  50
HYR  50  82  53  69 /  10   0  10  30
ASX  41  70  50  64 /  10   0  10  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for LSZ142>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Melde



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