Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 231955

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
255 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Clouds were on the increase this afternoon across the forecast area
ahead of the system currently affecting the Dakotas into western
Minnesota. High pressure near Hudson Bay was advecting dry air into
the region along with an easterly flow off of Lake Superior. This
combination was effectively preventing any low and mid clouds from
the Dakotas system from moving into the area. Some low stratus was
attempting to get organized over the Twin Ports harbor area.
However, these clouds have been dissipating as soon as they reach

Upper level ridging will move over the region tonight, while the
high pressure meanders around northern Ontario. These factors will
work in concert to keep the precipitation associated with the
Dakotas system from having much of an impact on the western edge of
the forecast area. Have already adjusted the pops to reflect this
trend and now only expect the light snow to affect the western edge
of Cass County. With minimal QPF, this led to lower snow amounts and
currently only have less than a half inch of accumulation expected.
Farther east, the high pressure will result in a dry forecast and a
mostly cloudy sky.

While the upper ridging largely remains over the region on Saturday,
some vorticity moves through southern Minnesota. Its proximity to
the region warranted keeping a small pop over southern Cass and Crow
Wing counties in the early morning hours. The vorticity departs by
mid morning with the ridging aloft, and at the surface, taking
control for the rest of Saturday. The cool easterly flow continues
and will keep max temps near to slightly below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

The latter half of the weekend looks dry and mild. High pressure
over eastern Canada will still dominate the Great Lakes on Sunday.
The Northland will have breezy south-southeast return flow and
increasing cloud cover from the west. Sunday`s highs will be in the
lower 40s.

A Colorado low will eject into the Central Plains Sunday night and
Monday, with low pressure stretching from the Southern Plains to
Canada. Overall, this does not look like a particularly organized
system due to multiple upper waves and a lack of dominant wave. It
will be bringing moderate forcing for ascent to generate a period of
light to moderate precipitation for the Northland early next week.
The mild weather will continue for Monday and Tuesday, and
temperatures aloft will be fairly warm, so anticipate mostly rain
with wet or melting snow. Snow accumulation will likely be quite

The middle of the week will likely be followed by a period of cooler
weather and high pressure. There might be a weak Canadian Clipper
that cuts across southern Canada or as far south as the US/Canada
border area, which could bring light rain and snow to northern


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Expect increasing cloud cover and breezy east winds today and
tonight. A storm system will bring rain and snow to the Central
and Northern Plains, but a large area of high pressure near Hudson
Bay will help keep the precipitation well west of the Great Lakes,
including west of most of northern and eastern Minnesota.
Therefore, most of the Northland will continue with VFR conditions
through Saturday afternoon. The exception is for KDLH, which will
likely get a period of MVFR ceilings late tonight and Saturday
morning because of the influence of Lake Superior and lifting of
moisture up the terrain to the airport.


DLH  19  34  22  41 /   0  10   0   0
INL  16  38  21  42 /   0  10   0  30
BRD  23  39  25  41 /  10  30   0  10
HYR  19  41  20  45 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  17  37  20  44 /   0   0   0   0


LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Saturday for LSZ144>147.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ141>143.



LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...Grochocinski is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.