Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 212058
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
358 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Main concerns in the short term are the possible critical fire
weather conditions across portions of north central Minnesota, due
to strong winds and low relative humidity.

A ridge of high pressure will build from central Canada this
afternoon, eastward into eastern Ontario by Sunday evening. During
this timeframe a trough will lift from southern British Columbia
northeastward into central Canada. At the surface will will result
in high pressure building into the Central and Eastern Great
Lakes while a cold front slowly moves across the Dakotas.
Flow aloft will gradually become more southwesterly, which will
advect warm air into the region. Despite the warm air advection,
expect a cool night due to radiational cooling. Lows range from
the low 20s to the low 30s.

Mild air will continue advecting into the region on Sunday. The
combination of the approaching front and high building across the
Central/Eastern Great Lakes will result in a tightening pressure
gradient across much of northern Minnesota. In addition, expect
deep mixing as lapse rates will be around 9-10 deg/km up to 1.5
km. The deep mixing will bring low relative humidities and mild
temperatures to the region. Bumped down relative humidity values
in comparison to previous forecasts, in addition to increasing
winds and temperatures. Expect gusts of 10-15 mph across NW WI and
15-25 mph across northeast Minnesota. Most confident in the
highest gusts across locations where the Fire Weather Watch is in
place. High temperatures range from the 50s along the Lake
Superior Shoreline, to the 60s across inland locations.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Dry and quiet through much of the extended with widespread
precipitation chances returning late in the week.

The previously mentioned trough will lift into Hudson Bay on
Monday, while at the surface the cold front weakens as it slides
through northern Minnesota. Despite the front, expect mostly
sunny skies with no precipitation anticipated. Winds will not be
as strong as on Sunday. Flow aloft will remain southwesterly and
this will bring the mildest readings through this forecast
package. Highs on Monday range from the low to mid 50s along the
Lake Superior Shoreline to mid 60s across inland areas.

There are slight chances of rain showers across parts of the
Northland on Tuesday as another trough digs into the Northern
Plains. Overall, not impressed with this next system as the
ECMWF/GEM and other pieces of guidance keep us dry. While the GFS
remains one of the only models bringing precipitation to the
region. However, the GFS has trended toward the other pieces of
guidance over the past few days. So, nudged precipitation chances
toward the ECWMF. Suspect the precipitation chances will need to
keep being lowered. Expect cooler temperatures on Tuesday as flow
aloft becomes northwesterly and advects colder air into the
region. Highs range from the upper 40s along the Lake Superior
Shoreline to the mid 50s from the Brainerd Lakes to the Phillips
area.

High pressure builds back into the region on Wednesday, before
precipitation chances return on Thursday as another trough digs in
from central Canada. This may bring a rain/snow mix to parts of
the region. High pressure will build back in on Friday as a ridge
slides into the Northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

VFR through the forecast with clear skies. Winds will remain light
through much of the forecast as high pressure nudges into the
Upper Mississippi River Valley. Expect gusty southerly winds to
develop mid to late Sunday morning as the pressure gradient
tightens due to the cold front sliding in from Eastern North
Dakota.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  27  61  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
INL  33  64  41  63 /   0   0  10   0
BRD  30  63  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  27  59  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  24  61  37  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for MNZ010-018.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WL
LONG TERM...WL
AVIATION...WL


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