Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 180533
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1233 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Updating Aviation section below for the 06Z TAF update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Showers and a few thunderstorms were occurring near the elevated
warm front moving through northeast Minnesota this afternoon.
Rainfall amounts have been fairly light and generally less than
one tenth of an inch. Elsewhere, high pressure remained in charge
with a partly to mostly sunny sky. The thunderstorms will
percolate until near sunset before ending with the loss of
daytime heating. Showers will persist through the night, mainly
north of U.S. Highway 2, in response to an upper level short wave
trof moving through northwest Minnesota. Upper level/surface
ridging remains over the rest of the region tonight.

The ridging remains over the eastern edge of northeast Minnesota
and northwest Wisconsin Friday, and the western portion of the
forecast area in the morning. By Friday afternoon, showers will
begin to impinge on the western third of the region as an upper
level short wave trof moves into northwest Minnesota. A low level
jet brings ample moisture into the area and leads to beneficial
rains as these features interact.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

The first half of the weekend will see much needed rainfall across
the Northland tapering off Saturday afternoon across northwest
Wisconsin. The second half and into the early portion of the normal
work week will see drier conditions again take hold across the
Northland.

Friday night into Saturday will see an area of light rain showers
and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms. Higher rainfall totals
are expected across northeast Minnesota with totals up to half an
inch to less across northwest Wisconsin. Highs in the 60s in
northern Minnesota behind the cold front, otherwise in the upper
60s to low 70s throughout the long term period as a broad area of
high pressure builds across the Upper Great Lakes. Lows generally
in the 40s to low 50s with the exception of Saturday night where
much of the region will be in the mid to upper 30s for lows.

On the synoptic scale, a broad mid-level longwave trough with an
embedded shortwave trough will track to the east across southern
Manitoba and Ontario into the Northland Coupled with strong warm air
advection across the Upper Midwest, the mid-level PVA combined will
lead to broad-scale lift across much of the Upper Midwest Friday
night into Saturday. A cold front will track from west to east
across the region, with precipitation expected to develop along and
ahead of the front. Low level moisture will be limited initially,
which will result in a slow onset of precipitation on Friday.

With a region of high pressure building into the Northland late this
weekend, relative humidity values will again fall to around 20 to 30
percent each day, but limited winds should preclude a fire weather
threat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to move across far
northern Minnesota tonight, mainly north of Highway 2. Mostly VFR
conditions are expected although some brief MVFR conditions are
possible under the persistent showers.

A low pressure system and frontal boundary will move into the
Northland late Friday into Friday night causing more showers and
storms, especially over northern Minnesota. MVFR conditions will
develop over parts of far northern Minnesota at the end of the
period.

A low level jet, which is partially responsible for causing the
showers and storms tonight, will lead to low level wind shear into
Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  39  67  50  58 /  10   0  30  50
INL  42  78  41  60 /  90  50  70  20
BRD  49  80  52  59 /  20   0  60  50
HYR  47  82  53  69 /  10   0  10  30
ASX  37  70  50  64 /  10   0  10  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
     LSZ142>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Melde
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Melde



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