Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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238 FXUS63 KEAX 011929 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 229 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widely scattered showers and thunder through this evening. One or two strong storms may be possible this evening into tonight with hail the primary concerns. - Showers and thunderstorms will continue through Thursday. River flooding will remain a concern. - Additional rounds of showers and storms this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Scattered showers and isolated thunder continue to persist this afternoon across portions of eastern Kansas and western Missouri. This activity has maintained within the re-established warm sector ahead of a weak mid-level short wave lifting east-northeast off the western high plains of CO/KS. 18Z surface analysis suggests a diffuse warm front stretches from north central Kansas to north of the Missouri River. Compared to the earlier convection in central Kansas, as this activity has advanced east, it`s run into a less favorable environment, with only lower to mid-40s dew points to work with. This evening, scattered showers and thunder will continue across the region, with some greater focus across far northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri as the LLJ increases through 06Z. Additionally, with the push of a cold front off the Panhandle of Nebraska, guidance continues to develop a complex/line of storms building southeastward overnight across the Sandhills through midnight. Observing MCS maintenance, short-range solutions suggest shear/cold pool balance will maintain to some degree as it moves east, arriving into a favorable environment across eastern Kansas through the early morning hours. Not a traditional MCS environment, but close enough to suggest a line of thunderstorms will move into the area through sunrise tomorrow morning and may be capable of strong to severe winds. For the remainder of Thursday, it`s looking like a rather rainy day, with persisting showers and thunderstorms as the cold front and associated upper short wave move through the region through the day. Widespread rainfall amounts tonight through Thursday will range from 1.00 to 1.50 inches. As always, locally heavier amounts may exist within thunderstorms. Rain is expected to clear out from west to east by Friday morning, with high pressure allowing for a rather rain free day. Winds will shift back to the southeast and south through the evening, increasing return flow ahead of an advancing H500 open short wave. With increased ascent ahead, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase across Kansas into Missouri through Saturday morning. Mid- range solutions shift precipitation eastward of the region late Saturday afternoon and evening. The forecast gets a bit more complicated into Sunday, with the development of a large western trough over the Inter-Mountain West. An open short wave ejects off the southern Plains Sunday, lifting into the Ozarks by the evening. There`s some variability of how far north any precipitation will spread from this compact open trough. The greater focus for the extended is the evolution of the aforementioned western trough. It becomes negatively tilted rather quickly through Monday, with the H500 center pivoting over WY into eastern MT by Monday afternoon. The elongated surface front stretches from the Dakotas through the southern Plains. An eye will be kept on the evolution of this system over the next few days. Given synoptic setup, there`s increasing potential for thunderstorms across the plains and into our area by the evening. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 VFR conditions prevail early on in the TAF pd with MVFR conditions expected after midnight due to showers and storms. Increased chances for lower ceilings are north of most terminals overnight. Ceilings are expected to bounce back to VFR during the early morning hours on Thursday before more showers and storms return ceilings to MVFR later Thursday morning. Winds overnight will be out of the SSE around 10-15 kts, gusting to 20 kts followed be a shift to the SSW Thursday morning. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kurtz AVIATION...Hayes/Krull