632
AXPZ20 KNHC 192154
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun May 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to 13N99W to 08N116W. The ITCZ extends from 08N116W to
07N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 02N to 09N and W of 125W to beyond 140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between
82W and 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge is the main feature controlling the weather pattern
across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. This is
supporting moderate to fresh NW to N winds N of Cabo San Lazaro,
and gentle to moderate winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San
Lucas. Winds are increasing to locally strong around Cabo San
Lazaro. Seas are 6 to 7 ft in mixed NW and SW swell within these
winds. Elsewhere, including the Gulf of California, light to
gentle winds prevail, with 2 to 4 ft seas at the entrance of the
Gulf and 2 ft or less elsewhere. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in SW swell
dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. Medium
concentration of smoke, due to agricultural fires, may reduce
visibility over the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate
the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through at least
mid-week. This system, along with lower pressures over Mexico
will continue to support moderate to fresh NW to N winds W of the
Baja California peninsula. Winds will pulse to strong speeds N
of Cabo San Lazaro tonight and Mon night. NW swell is forecast to
impact the outer forecast waters of Baja California Norte
beginning on Mon. Seas are expected to build 8 to 10 ft N of
Punta Eugenia through Wed, with seas subsiding below 8 ft by Thu.
Medium concentration of smoke, due to agricultural fires, may
reduce visibility over portions of southern Mexico. Tropical
cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds are moderate to locally fresh off the coast of Ecuador and
the Galapagos Islands. Long period SW swell is bringing seas to
8 ft south of the Galapagos Islands and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere S of
02N. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the Central
America offshore waters. Moderate seas in the 4 to 6 ft range
due to long period SW swell are noted across the Central America
offshore waters. Scattered thunderstorms are noted off the coast
of Colombia and Panama, including the Gulf of Panama.

For the forecast, the monsoon trough extending along 11N-12N will
help to induce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over
the Central America waters over the next couple of days. Winds
will remain moderate or weaker through this week. Southerly swell
propagating across the Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands offshore
waters will support seas of 6 to 8 ft tonight through Tue night.
Seas across the Central America offshore waters will remain 4 to
7 ft.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure, located N of the forecast region, extends a ridge
across the waters N of 15N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressure along the ITCZ is forcing
fresh to strong NE to E trade winds from 07N to 21N and W of
125W. Seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range within these winds.
Elsewhere under the influence of the ridge, gentle to moderate
winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft prevail N of 16N to 31N. Seas are 6
to 7 ft in NW swell in this area. South of the ITCZ, gentle to
moderate winds prevail. Seas are 7 to 9 ft within S and SW
swell.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the area N of 10N and W of 110W through
most of the week. This will maintain mostly moderate to fresh
trade winds and moderate to rough seas along the southern
periphery of its associated ridge. The high pressure will
strengthen through Mon, bringing strong winds across the trade
wind zone. Long period SW swell will continue to propagate
across the forecast waters through mid-week. Seas of 8 to 10 ft
will begin to slowly decay Mon, and subside below 8 ft by Fri.

$$
AReinhart