National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KEWX 150630
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
125 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

A low amplitude upper level ridge continues to move across TX this
afternoon. A strong high pressure cell over the Gulf is generating
breezy southeasterly winds across South Central Texas. Low level
moisture has increased further over the last 24 hours with dewpoints
five to ten degrees higher today. The upper ridge will continue its
slow trek to the east tonight and Monday. The low level flow will
continue from the southeast. This will keep the warm, moist airmass
in place over our CWA. Tonight will be partly to mostly cloudy and
warm. Low temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than they
were this morning. The low level flow will remain from the southeast
Monday. The pressure gradient will tighten up Monday and winds will
be a little stronger during the day. High temperatures Monday will be
about the same as today ranging from the lower 80s to middle 90s.

Monday evening an upper level low will move into the Great Basin
bringing a trough into west TX. This will push a dryline and cold
front toward our northwestern area. Despite the warm, moist airmass
in place, a layer of warm air above the boundary layer will keep us
mainly capped and suppress convection. The best chance for any
showers or thunderstorms will be along the front across the northern
tier of our CWA. However, even there chances look low with only 20-
30 PoPs. If any storms can develop there is chance that they could
be strong to severe. Large hail is the most likely threat. Lots of
caveats here and chances are better for a dry forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

We are still expecting a formidable cap to be in place for Tuesday
when the Pacific front or dry-line moves east to the I-35 corridor.
With strong heating west of the boundary and a respectable 1.75+ pool
of PWat values over the Coastal Prairies, it is not out of the
question for the cap to be breakable. Should the cap break, the lapse
rates should be steep enough to support a marginal threat for severe
weather. Farther west, the fire weather concerns remain, especially
for areas that could see the RH fall into the 5-10 percent range. If
a RFW is not needed, the reason will be that the midday westerly
winds will be only 10 to 15 mph, as the tighter pressure gradients
will retreat northward, following the upper low.

The higher moisture doesn`t have far to go to get back inland as
southerly winds return for Wednesday, and this has resulted in a
slightly lower temperature forecast for MaxT`s. Shortwave ridging
begins to break down over TX Wednesday night as a low amplitude
disturbance moving in the weak zonal subtropical jet sets up to the
west. The past couple GFS runs have been fairly juicy, so there could
be an introduction of the mentionable PoPs overnight. The NBM still
shows favor to the slower and drier solution like that of the ECM. A
strong cold front is set to arrive by this weekend, but run-to-run
trends would suggest it to be less aggressive than from earlier
runs. Should it arrive earlier, we could see some good rain chances.
A later arrival could suggest delayed and lower rain potential.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Low stratus results in MVFR to IFR ceilings through Monday morning
and into at least the midday hours for the I-35 TAF sites (KAUS,
KSAT, KSSF).  KDRT will be the last to see MVFR to IFR ceilings
develop and latest to improve to VFR levels by 17 UTC.  The rest of
the TAF sites across South-Central Texas improve to VFR levels later
in the afternoon.  Moderate to breezy south to east-southeasterly
winds prevail through the period with gusts up to around 25 knots at
times from this afternoon into this evening.  There may be a very
low-end chance for isolated shower activity late this afternoon into
this evening, however confidence is not enough for inclusion into
the TAF package.  Low stratus will return tonight into Tuesday
morning with returning MVFR ceilings at the I-35 sites (KAUS, KSAT,
and KSSF).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              67  83  69  86 /   0   0  10  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  67  84  68  84 /   0  10  10  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     67  85  69  86 /   0   0  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            67  82  67  86 /   0   0  20  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           71  94  71 100 /   0   0  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        67  82  68  83 /   0   0  20  10
Hondo Muni Airport             66  89  67  92 /   0   0  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        66  84  67  84 /   0   0  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   67  82  70  85 /   0   0   0  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       67  86  68  86 /   0   0  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           68  87  70  89 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...18
Aviation...29