817
FXUS64 KEWX 252340
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
640 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The latest GOES 16 Water Vapor imagery places a mid-level low over
the Four Corners, resulting in southwest flow bringing plenty of
Pacific moisture our way in the mid levels. At the surface, a
dryline remains situated well west of our region, allowing surface
dewpoints to surge into the upper 60s to lower 70s area wide. As a
result, low clouds will be tough to break today, with some drizzle
and perhaps a rain shower or two possible through the early evening
hours. Afternoon highs today are expected to top out in the lower
90s over the Rio Grande Plains, along with 80s everywhere else.

For tonight, some storms are expected to develop over the Hill
Country and Southern Edwards Plateau and slide south and eastward
through late Friday morning. At this time, the severe threat is
someone limited by cap strength and a lack of daytime heating,
however, some redevelopment is possible by the afternoon/early
evening hours. Hi-res guidance has struggled with this messy
environment over the last couple of days and that trend looks to
continue through the short term period. In any matter, a Marginal
Risk for severe storms is in place for most of the CWA, excluding
just Val Verde County and the Coastal Plains. As far as the
temperatures go, the Rio Grande Plains are expected to begin a bit
of a hot stretch starting Friday. Highs will top out in the mid to
upper 90s with elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions
expected over Val Verde County by the afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A potentially active weather period still appears on the horizon
Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. The dryline will likely
make a brief eastward push late Saturday afternoon/early evening
which may help convection develop over portions of the southern
Edwards Plateau. Initially, the setup favors isolated supercells,
with all modes of severe weather possible. A stronger eastward push
of the dryline is anticipated early Sunday morning as an upper level
trough axis and Pacific cold front approach from the west. This
should then favor convection developing into more of a linear mode
across the Hill Country, with models showing some weakening of
convection while approaching the I-35 corridor Sunday morning. We
will also need to watch the afternoon hours for some potential
breaks in the cloud cover and heating to help destabilize the
atmosphere along the dryline. SPC outlooks place the Hill Country and
portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande in a Level 2
out of 5 risk for severe storms Saturday night into Sunday morning,
with a Level 1 of 5 risk in place for most of the remainder of south
central Texas.

The dryline will retreat westward Sunday evening into Monday morning
as quasi-zonal flow aloft continues. Another upper level trough looks
to approach from the west during the middle of the upcoming week. We
will continue to mention low-end rain chances across most areas and
will refine the forecast as models begin to converge on timing of
when the next upper level system will impact the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

All area terminals are VFR except for SAT which is MVFR. Ceilings
will drop at all sites to MVFR later this evening and then to IFR
overnight in Austin and San Antonio. There are chances for showers
and thunderstorms in the Austin and San Antonio areas overnight into
Friday morning. The best timing for precipitation will be after
sunrise until around noon. Ceilings will improve during the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              71  82  71  86 /  10  50  10  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  71  82  71  85 /  10  50  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     71  84  71  86 /  10  40  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            69  80  69  82 /  20  50  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           74  97  73  98 /  10   0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        70  81  71  84 /  10  50  10  20
Hondo Muni Airport             70  87  71  89 /  20  20  10  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        70  83  71  86 /  10  40  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  84  73  85 /   0  30  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       71  84  71  85 /  20  30  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport           72  86  72  87 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...05