116
FXUS65 KFGZ 081734
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1034 AM MST Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Below normal temperatures will continue through the
end of the week, with near/above afternoon highs returning over
the weekend. Typical spring-like breezy will remain through the
forecast period, with slight chances for precipitation across some
areas Friday through Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...Much lighter winds across northern Arizona this morning
and temperatures are 5 to 8 degrees cooler than yesterday at this
time. No updates needed this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /417 AM MST/...A zonal flow will be present aloft
thanks to a elongated low remaining over the Northern Plains.
This pattern will slowly increase our temperatures through the end
of the week, but the majority of our CWA will have afternoon
highs staying a few degrees below-normal for this time of year.
Winds will revert to seasonal breezes for the next few days too.

Model guidance (ECMWF, GFS, NAM) is slowly beginning to agree on a
closed low forming off the backside of this elongated low by
Friday. Although impacts are currently forecast to be minimal with
this set-up, there will be an increase in moisture over Arizona.
There is higher confidence that this moisture will present itself
as cloud cover, but slight precipitation chances are not out of
the question. If showers do become more likely, best chances
appear to be along our Utah and New Mexico border. Wind speeds
are forecast to increase, but look to remain well below any
advisory thresholds.

By the weekend, a ridge is expected to form on-top of this
incoming closed low, creating a Rex Block pattern. This synoptic
pattern will assist with increasing temperatures through the
beginning of next week, where daytime highs should return to
above-normal. There is still uncertainty with how these synoptic
patterns will ultimately shake out, so check back for updates.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 08/18Z through Thursday 09/18Z...VFR
conditions will continue across northern Arizona with mostly clear
skies. Scattered smoke, resulting in periods of MVFR VIS, is
expected in the vicinity of KFLG for this afternoon due to
prescribed burns just south of the terminal. Afternoon winds will
be out of the west, 15-25 kts, becoming easterly 5-10 kts after
03Z. Stronger northeast winds are likely at KSEZ overnight.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 09/18Z through Saturday 11/18Z...Widespread VFR
conditions are anticipated across the region. Mid to upper-level
cloud cover should become SCT-BKN along and north of I-40 on
Thursday and Friday afternoons. Expect westerly winds 15-25 kts
for Thursday and Friday, becoming northwest on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Cool but dry conditions are
expected through Thursday. Southwest winds 10-20 mph each afternoon,
becoming light and variable overnight. Afternoon humidity of 10-20%
is forecast with moderate recovery overnight.

Friday through Sunday...Gradually warming temperatures, becoming
slightly above normal by the weekend. Afternoon southwest winds 10-
20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph each day. Winds become more westerly on
Sunday. Terrain driven winds under 10 mph at night, with some
easterly drainage winds through mid-morning. Very slight chance (10-
15%) for showers and thunderstorms for this weekend, mainly across
the northern zones.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/Konieczny
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff