894
FXUS65 KFGZ 280955
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
255 AM MST Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a drying and warming trend across northern
Arizona for much of this week with breezy winds each afternoon.
By Thursday, temperatures look to cool, however, remain seasonal
as low pressure passes towards the north. Conditions are forecast
to remain dry through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Tranquil weather conditions are taking place across
northern Arizona early this morning as low pressure continues to
migrate eastward. Winds remain light, under 10 mph, this morning
with temperatures at or slightly above average for this time of
year. Scattered cloud cover will persist through this afternoon,
clearing out later tonight as drier, more stable conditions
develop across the Southwest.

High temperatures will warm this afternoon, forecast to be roughly
10 degrees warmer compared to yesterday`s. Warming will continue
on Monday and Tuesday with temperatures 5-10 degrees above average
by Tuesday. Temperatures each night will likely be on the colder
side due to drier conditions and clear skies.

As for winds, anticipate afternoon breezes of 10-25 mph each day
through Tuesday from the west-northwest today, followed by
southwest for Monday and Tuesday. Winds look to increase, 25-35
mph, for Wednesday into Thursday as global models suggest a
passing low pressure trough towards the north. Temperatures are
forecast to cool back down on Thursday, however, remaining near
average.

Precipitation chances are unlikely for much of this week with the
GEFS, ECMWF Ens, and NBM all suggesting dry conditions to close
out the month of April. Nothing on the horizon as we begin May,
however, the pattern across the West looks to remain unsettled.
All depends on how far south these potential longwave troughs dig
from the north and west.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 28/06Z through Monday 29/06Z...Mostly VFR
conditions now for areas west of KINW. East of there, isolated to
scattered RA/TS is still ongoing. Likewise, sub VFR ceilings are
present. This activity will diminish in the next 2-4 hours. Light
winds tonight will become westerly after 16Z Sunday at 5-10 kts
with gusts to 20.

OUTLOOK...Monday 29/06Z through Wednesday 01/06Z...VFR conditions
persisting. Afternoon winds out of the SW Monday and Tuesday,
gusting 20-30 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Monday...Dry and warmer. Afternoon
west-northwest winds at 15 to 25 mph today, becoming southwest at 15-
25 mph on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Dry conditions are forecast. Warm on
Tuesday and Wednesday turning a bit cooler on Thursday with the
passage of a dry weather disturbance. Breezy southwest winds at 15
to 25 mph on Tuesday, becoming stronger at 25 to 35 mph for
Wednesday and Thursday with the disturbance.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...LaGuardia
AVIATION...RKR
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff