885
FXUS63 KGID 012004
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
304 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are possible (70% chance) this evening
  into tonight. The main threats with these storms will be large
  hail, damaging winds, and localized flooding.

- Strong to severe storms will also be possible (about a 30%
  chance) Friday night and again on Monday.

- High temperatures across the area will mostly be in the 60s
  and 70s, and low temperatures will mostly be in the 40s and
  50s with some 30s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Today and tonight...

An upper trough is over most of the western half of the country with
the leading edge moving over the Central Plains. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are currently moving over south central and
central Nebraska and portions of north central Kansas. Winds across
the area are mostly out of the east to southeast, and temperatures
are currently in the 50s and 60s. Upper lift will increase over the
region later this evening into tonight as the upper trough moves
overhead. A complex of storms is expected to develop and move from
west to east later this evening through the overnight hours across
south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. This
storm complex will be driven by a cold front that will move into the
area tonight. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats
with these storms with a low threat of localized flash flooding. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the 40s and 50s.

Thursday through Friday night...

The upper trough will continue to move over the region on Thursday
with gusty northwest to north winds across south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas. The rain and storms may linger
into early Thursday morning across eastern portions of the forecast
area but the convection is expected to be out of the area by the
afternoon. High temperatures on Thursday will mostly be in the 60s
with some lower 70s across mainly portions of north central Kansas.
Low temperatures Thursday night will mostly be in the 40s with some
30s possible across northwestern portions of the forecast area.
Winds will increase out of the southeast to south Friday afternoon
with the upper trough still overhead. High temperatures on Friday
are expected to be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. The main portion of
the upper trough will move overhead Friday night with a cold front
coming into the area. This will result in increased chances (up to
around 80%) of showers and thunderstorms Friday night. There is a
marginal risk of severe weather with this system as indicated by the
Storm Prediction Center Day 3 outlook. Low temperatures Friday night
are expected to range from the upper 30s to lower 50s.

Saturday through Tuesday night...

A surface high will be across south central and central Nebraska and
north central Kansas on Saturday with clearing skies. High
temperatures will be in the 60s. Winds were out of the southeast to
east Saturday night with lows in the 40s. An upper trough will dig
southward over the western part of the country on Sunday with winds
increasing out of the southeast. High temperatures on Sunday will be
in the mid 60s to lower 70s. The upper trough will move closer to
the area Sunday night and will move over the Central Plains on
Monday. Low temperatures Sunday night will be in the 50s with winds
continuing to be gusty out of the southeast with mostly cloudy
skies. Rain and storm chances (up to around 60%) increase across the
area on Monday with the increase in upper lift. Some of these storms
may be strong to severe on Monday. High temperatures on Monday will
mostly be in the 70s with low temperatures Monday night in the 40s
to lower 50s. A broad upper trough will be over the region on
Tuesday with highs mostly in the 70s. Low temperatures Tuesday night
will be similar to those from the previous night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Winds will generally be out of the east this afternoon with some
gusts. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon. Low ceilings are expected at EAR beginning
around 21z and at GRI beginning around 00z. Winds will switch to
the north this evening with thunderstorm chances increasing.
Thunderstorms should end by 12z and low end VFR conditions are
expected around 16z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt