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000
FXUS63 KGRR 180226
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1026 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry overnight until Thursday afternoon

- Rain Thursday night with some thunder possible

- Cool and dry this weekend, blustery Saturday

- A bit milder early next week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1019 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The forecast is largely on track this evening. A few wraparound
rain showers clipped our northern areas earlier this evening, but
the rest of the night should be dry as post-frontal westerly winds
slowly diminish toward morning. There may be a brief window around
sunrise where we see some breaks of sunshine before mid and high
clouds associated with the next wave overtake our part of the
world by mid/late morning. Overall Friday will be dry but fairly
cloudy.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

- Dry overnight until Thursday afternoon

No changes to previous thinking here. After thunderstorms clear the
area later today, there could be some wraparound precipitation across
our northern zones lasting into early tonight. Otherwise, we should
be dry the rest of the night into Thursday afternoon, when a shower
or two may be possible.

- Rain Thursday night with some thunder possible

The next possibility for rain will be associated with a very stretched
out cold front extending southwestward across the central CONUS. We
are in the exit region of a powerful upper jet during this time with
a lot of forced ascent potential. Indeed, HREF/SREF guidance both
advertise a chance for thunder across our southern zones. This activity
should exit by sunrise Friday morning.

- Cool and dry this weekend, blustery Saturday

Fair weather will return Friday through the weekend. It will
become much cooler as h8 temps fall to -7 to -9 C by Saturday. Highs
in the 50s Friday will decrease to the 40s Saturday - and Saturday
will feel quite raw as strong gusty winds drop wind chills into the
30s. Lows could fall to near or below freezing across portions of our
area early Sunday and Monday mornings as surface ridging builds in.

- A bit milder early next week

Temps will moderate a bit early next week back to near normal for this
time of year. Fair weather will continue Monday. A weak low pressure
system will bring a chance of rain showers Monday night into Tuesday.
Fair weather will return for the mid to latter portion of next week
as another surface high pressure ridge builds in.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 808 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Light showers linger with overcast skies and gusty winds. The
gusty winds will persist through most of the overnight period
through the rain will cease by mid evening. Due to the recent
heavy rainfall and cold moist air behind the front expect lowering
cigs overnight with periods of IFR possible between 10Z and 13Z,
especially at JXN. Otherwise expect MVFR cigs to dominate the
period with improving conditions after 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1019 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Hazardous winds and waves will begin to improve/diminish overnight
as the pressure gradient slackens. A 6AM end time for the small
craft advisory still looks on track.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AMD
DISCUSSION...Laurens/TJT
AVIATION...Laurens/Ceru
MARINE...AMD